LaLigaMatchday 10 · · Estadio de Mestalla

Our Statistical Model's Best Bet: Valencia C.F. vs Villarreal CF — LaLiga Matchday 10

When Valencia C.F. and Villarreal CF meet, statistics only tell half the story. But they still matter. Our prediction engine has gone through the form, head-to-head records and current LaLiga standings ahead of this derby at Estadio de Mestalla — and come up with a well-founded betting tip and the best odds on offer.
Valencia C.F. LogoValencia C.F.19DDWWD
·
Villarreal CF LogoVillarreal CF12DLWLL
1X256/25RollinoT&C's apply | +18
1X263/23CosmobetT&C's apply | +18
1X26/5CosmobetT&C's apply | +18
Expert TipDouble Chance 1XProbability61% 5/7 Visit RollinoT&C's apply | +18

At on , Estadio de Mestalla hosts another chapter in the LaLiga — the association's premier competition. Valencia C.F. (19.) take on Villarreal CF (12.) in matchday 10 of the season. The hosts drew against Athletic Bilbao (0 - 0), while Villarreal CF drew 0 - 0 against Elche CF and have conceded just goals per game on average this season. In the last 6 months, Valencia C.F. have won 2 of their 5 home games at Estadio de Mestalla. Our model arrives at a 39% probability for Villarreal CF to take the points and make a statement in the top flight.

The Best Betting Tips for Valencia C.F. vs Villarreal CF at a Glance

Three-Way BetVillarreal CF39%6/5·CosmobetT&C's apply | +18 Total Goals Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5 Goals55%19/25·CosmobetT&C's apply | +18 ★ Expert TipExpert TipDouble Chance 1X61%5/7·RollinoT&C's apply | +18

Statistical help for successful sports betting

Three-Way BetValencia C.F. 36% · X 25% · Villarreal CF 39%Valencia C.F.XVillarreal CFBoth Teams To Score Yes/NoYes 59% · No 41%YesNoTotal Goals Over/Under 2.5Over 55% · Under 45%OverUnderTotal Goals Over/Under 3.5Over 33% · Under 67%OverUnderCorrect Score1-112%0-011%1-011%

Who will win the match?

Valencia C.F.
X
Villarreal CF
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The Best Bookmaker Odds for Valencia C.F. vs Villarreal CF – Side by Side

 ProbabilityValencia C.F.36%Draw25%Villarreal CF39%Cosmobet42/1963/236/5Odd last updated:Velobet21/1014/523/20Odd last updated:Zizobet23/105/223/20Odd last updated:

Form Analysis and Performance Comparison

Valencia C.F. Form
Last 5 games
DDWWD
The most recent game for Valencia C.F. saw them take on Athletic Bilbao, with the match ending 0 - 0. Sharing the spoils means they will be looking to go one better here. They head into this LaLiga fixture at Estadio de Mestalla on looking to build on recent performances.
The last 6 months have seen Valencia C.F. play 8 competitive matches, winning 4 and losing 1. Of their 5 home games during this stretch, they have won 2 and lost 1. They have scored 13 goals at home and away combined, conceding 10.
Looking at Valencia C.F.'s recent run of 8 games, they have netted 13 goals at a rate of 1.63 per game. Defensively, they have let in 10 goals over the same period. At home specifically, Valencia C.F. have won 2 and lost 1 of their 5 home games in this stretch.
Villarreal CF Form
Last 5 games
DLWLL
Villarreal CF most recently faced Elche CF, drawing the match 0 - 0. It was a result that left the squad with mixed feelings heading into this away fixture.
Over the past 6 months, Villarreal CF have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their 8 games. Away from home they have picked up wins from 3 fixtures, losing 2. They have scored 15 goals in total during this period – an average of 1.88 per game.
In their last 8 games, Villarreal CF have scored a total of 15 goals — an average of 1.88 per match. At the other end, they have conceded 10 goals, giving them an average of 1.25 against per game. Their away record in that period shows wins from 3 games on the road.
Stats per Game
Valencia C.F. Villarreal CF
Goals scored
1.4
1.8
Corners
4.1
5.3
Fouls
11.9
10.1
Saves
3.3
3.2
LaLiga

LaLiga Table

#TeamPlayedDiff.Pnts
1FC Barcelona Logo FC Barcelona93027
2Atlético Madrid Logo Atlético Madrid91122
3Real Madrid Logo Real Madrid91421
· · · 7 places · · ·
11Athletic Bilbao Logo Athletic Bilbao719
12Villarreal CF Logo Villarreal CF Away909
13Rayo Vallecano de Madrid Logo Rayo Vallecano de Madrid8-59
· · · 4 places · · ·
18Elche CF Logo Elche CF9-67
19Valencia C.F. Logo Valencia C.F. Home9-96
20Málaga CF9-124
Last Meetings
02/22/2026
Villarreal CF
Valencia C.F.
2-1
10/25/2025
Valencia C.F.
Villarreal CF
0-2
02/15/2025
Villarreal CF
Valencia C.F.
1-1
08/31/2024
Valencia C.F.
Villarreal CF
1-1
Form Trend – Points per Game (Last 5 Matches)
■ Valencia C.F. ■ Villarreal CF

Betting Tip from Our Statistical Model for the Derby Between Valencia C.F. and Villarreal CF

Derbies can defy the odds – but informed betting still gives you an edge. Our model analyses the data behind the passion and arrives at Villarreal CF pulling off a famous derby win on the road as the most likely outcome – 39% probability, with top odds of 6/5 at Cosmobet. Across all bet markets, our standout tip for this LaLiga derby remains "Double Chance" – 61% probability and odds of 5/7 at Rollino.Best Tip Double Chance 1X5/7Place betT&C's apply | +18