Our Statistical Model's Best Bet: F.C. Alverca vs Estoril Praia — Primeira Liga Matchday 33

The FC Alverca Sports Complex derby is back. F.C. Alverca (10.) host Estoril Praia (9.) on 05/10/2026 at 16:00. F.C. Alverca go into this one without a home win in recent outings and their last fixture (1 - 0 against FC Porto) set the tone. Estoril Praia have scored goals this season and came away with only a point against Sporting Braga last time out. Our statistical evaluation puts Estoril Praia the momentum to take the points away from home — 42%.

Best Odds and Betting Tips for the Primeira Liga Clash at FC Alverca Sports Complex

Best F.C. Alverca vs Estoril Praia pre-match odds

Three-Way Bet

 ProbabilityF.C. Alverca33%Draw25%Estoril Praia42%24/17123/4939/20Odd last updated:7/527/1017/10Odd last updated:23/175/215/8Odd last updated:

Performance Overview: Form, Goals and Recent Results Compared

F.C. Alverca Form

Last 5 games

LWLWW

F.C. Alverca most recently faced FC Porto, losing the match 1 - 0. It was a result that left the squad determined to bounce back on home soil.

The last 6 months have seen F.C. Alverca play 22 competitive matches, winning 7 and losing 8. Of their 11 home games during this stretch, they have won 5 and lost 2. They have scored 23 goals at home and away combined, conceding 32.

In their last 22 games, F.C. Alverca have scored a total of 23 goals – an average of 1.05 per match. At the other end, they have conceded 32 goals, giving them an average of 1.45 against per game. Their home record in that period shows 5 wins from 11 games.

Estoril Praia Form

Last 5 games

DLLLL

On the previous matchday, Estoril Praia went up against Sporting Braga and came away with a point at 1 - 1. The result means they head to FC Alverca Sports Complex looking to find a winner away from home.

In the last 6 months, Estoril Praia have played 21 games, winning 7 of them. Their away record in that period reads 2 wins and 7 defeats from 10 matches on the road. Offensively, they have netted 36 goals while conceding 39 – a defensive average of 1.86 per game.

Looking at Estoril Praia's recent run of 21 games, they have netted 36 goals at a rate of 1.71 per game. Defensively, they have let in 39 goals over the same period. Away from home specifically, Estoril Praia have won 2 and lost 7 of their 10 away games in this stretch.

Stats per Game

F.C. Alverca Estoril Praia

Goals scored

1.2

0.8

Corners

6

4

Fouls

10.5

13.6

Saves

3.3

2.6

Primeira Liga

Primeira Liga Table

#	Team	Played	Diff.	Pnts
1	FC Porto	32	49	85
2	Benfica Lisbon	32	47	76
3	Sporting CP	31	55	73
· · · 4 places · · ·
8	Moreirense FC	32	-10	42
9	Estoril Praia Away	32	-1	38
10	F.C. Alverca Home	32	-16	38
11	F.C. Arouca	32	-21	36

Last Meetings

12/27/2025

Estoril Praia
F.C. Alverca

4-1

07/19/2025

Estoril Praia
F.C. Alverca

1-2

Form Trend – Points per Game (Last 5 Matches)

■ F.C. Alverca ■ Estoril Praia