Burnley FC vs Aston Villa | Premier League Betting Tip & Prediction (05/10/2026)

The Premier League heads to on 05/10/2026 as Burnley FC host Aston Villa at Turf Moor – kick-off at 13:00. The hosts, currently 19. in the table with points, last faced Leeds United and suffered a defeat at 3 - 1. The visitors Aston Villa hold 5. place with points and lost their last outing 1 - 2 against Tottenham Hotspur. Our probability-based forecast currently favours the visitors leaving with maximum points at 53%.

Our Best Betting Tips for Matchday 36 of the Premier League

Three-Way BetAston Villa3/53/5·RollinoT&C's apply | +18Total Goals Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5 Goals17/2317/23·CosmobetT&C's apply | +18★ Expert TipExpert TipUnder 2.5 Goals23/2023/20·CosmobetT&C's apply | +18

Valuable betting tip based on statistics and facts

Three-Way BetBurnley FC 23% · X 24% · Aston Villa 53%Burnley FCXAston VillaBoth Teams To Score Yes/NoYes 52% · No 48%YesNoTotal Goals Over/Under 2.5Over 51% · Under 49%OverUnderTotal Goals Over/Under 3.5Over 29% · Under 71%OverUnderCorrect Score1-111%0-111%1-210%

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The Most Competitive Odds Across All Major Bookmakers

ProbabilityBurnley FC23%Draw24%Aston Villa53%

35/887/2510/17Odd last updated:

9/216/511/20Odd last updated:

4/110/33/5Odd last updated:

Performance Overview: Form, Goals and Recent Results Compared

Burnley FC Form

Last 5 games

LLLLL

Burnley FC most recently faced Leeds United, losing the match 3 - 1. It was a result that left the squad determined to bounce back on home soil.

Over the past 6 months, Burnley FC have won 1, drawn 7 and lost 17 of their 25 games. At home they have picked up wins from 12 fixtures, losing 8. They have scored 23 goals in total during this period – an average of 0.92 per game.

A closer look at Burnley FC's last 25 games reveals a side that has scored 23 goals and conceded 52. Their home performances stand out: wins from 12 home fixtures, with 8 defeats — averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game.

Aston Villa Form

Last 5 games

LLWDW

Aston Villa most recently faced Tottenham Hotspur, losing the match 1 - 2. It was a result that left the squad determined to bounce back and take something from this trip to Turf Moor.

Aston Villa's form over the past 6 months paints a clear picture: 13 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats from 24 games. Away from home, they have won 5 of 11 games, scoring 16 goals and conceding 16 on the road.

Over their last 24 matches, Aston Villa have found the net 38 times — that's 1.58 goals per game on average. They have conceded 31 goals in the same span, with their away form showing 5 wins and 3 defeats from 11 away fixtures.

Stats per Game

Burnley FC Aston Villa

Goals scored

1.2

Corners

4.8

Fouls

9.9

10.5

Saves

2.7

3.4

Premier League

Premier League Table

#	Team	Played	Diff.	Pnts
1	Arsenal London	35	41	76
2	Manchester City	33	37	70
3	Manchester United	35	15	64
4	Liverpool FC	35	12	58
5	Aston Villa Away	35	4	58
6	AFC Bournemouth	35	3	52
· · · 11 places · · ·
18	West Ham United	35	-19	36
19	Burnley FC Home	35	-36	20
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers	35	-38	18

Last Meetings

10/05/2025

Aston Villa
Burnley FC

2-1

12/30/2023

Aston Villa
Burnley FC

3-2

08/27/2023

Burnley FC
Aston Villa

1-3

Form Trend – Points per Game (Last 5 Matches)

■ Burnley FC ■ Aston Villa

Burnley FC vs Aston Villa: Our Statistical Model's Top Betting Tip

The Premier League table says it all: Burnley FC (19., wins, goals scored) vs Aston Villa (5., wins, goals) — a fixture where the data strongly favours one side. Our model gives Aston Villa to defy the odds and produce a result that shakes up the Premier League narrative a probability of 53%, best odds 3/5 at Rollino. Our best tip across all markets is "Total Goals Over/Under 2.5" — 49% probability, odds 23/20 at Cosmobet.Best Tip Under 2.5 Goals23/20Place betT&C's apply | +18