USA vs Paraguay: World Cup 2026 Predictions, Betting Tips & Odds (13.06.2026)

The USA are heavily favoured at around 2/5, with the draw at 7/2 and a Paraguay victory at 7/1. The hosts’ squad quality and home advantage make this a logical price, but Paraguay’s stubborn defensive record in CONMEBOL qualifying – including wins over Brazil and Argentina – suggests they are capable of keeping this closer than those odds imply.

USA Recent Form

Pochettino took charge of the USMNT in September 2024 and has spent his tenure experimenting extensively, often without his strongest XI available due to overlapping club commitments and a string of injuries. The results have been mixed. The USA lost 2-1 to Mexico in the 2025 Gold Cup final, were beaten by both Portugal and Belgium in friendlies, but also recorded encouraging results against Ecuador (draw) and Venezuela (win). In the most recent March 2026 window, Pochettino was again without several key players – Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams all missed out through injury. Results from this period are difficult to judge: the squad was deliberately rotated to test fringe options, and the Argentine coach has been adamant that “no one can feel safe” when it comes to final squad selection.

The injury picture has been the defining narrative of this build-up. Pulisic, the face of the programme, sustained a hamstring injury against Australia and then a glute problem at AC Milan – he is expected to be fit but arrives with a 19-game goalless streak for club and country stretching back to December. Tyler Adams (Bournemouth) missed two months with an MCL injury but has returned to action. Johnny Cardoso recently underwent ankle surgery and is a significant doubt. The positive news centres on Ricardo Pepi, who has been in blistering form for PSV Eindhoven with 18 goals this season, including four in his last four starts. Weston McKennie (Juventus) has played 47 matches across all competitions this campaign and brings leadership and versatility. New faces have emerged: Alex Freeman at right-back and goalkeeper Matt Freese have gone from uncapped unknowns to projected starters under Pochettino, demonstrating the coach’s willingness to trust form over reputation.

USA Key Players

Paraguay Recent Form

Paraguay’s road back to the World Cup is one of the great stories of this qualifying cycle. Gustavo Alfaro inherited a side that had taken just five points from their first 18 available in CONMEBOL qualifying – a position that looked utterly hopeless. What followed was a remarkable transformation. Alfaro’s Paraguay went nine matches unbeaten, including stunning victories over Brazil and Argentina, to finish sixth in the South American table and claim the final automatic qualifying spot. Those results were not flukes: they were built on a clear identity of defensive organisation, pragmatism, and lethal counter-attacking through Miguel Almirón, Julio Enciso, and Diego Gómez.

Alfaro’s preferred system is a compact 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 that prioritises a low block, disciplined positional shape, and quick transitions when the ball is won. The centre-back pairing of Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras) and Omar Alderete (Sunderland) is among the best in South America, and that solidity is the foundation upon which everything is built. In attack, the mix of experience and youth is appealing: Almirón (Atlanta United, 32) provides the intelligence and work rate from the left, while Enciso (Strasbourg, formerly Brighton) offers the spark of unpredictability. Antonio Sanabria leads the line as a robust target man. The squad includes several names familiar to UK audiences: Alderete has been impressive in the Premier League with Sunderland, Diego Gómez plays for Brighton, and teenager Diego León is on the books of Manchester United – though the latter was not included in the most recent squad. Paraguay’s recent friendlies have been mixed, with experimentation producing inconsistent results, but their qualifying form tells you everything about what Alfaro’s side are capable of when fully motivated.

Paraguay Key Players

Head-to-Head Record

The USA and Paraguay have a surprisingly extensive history, having met over a dozen times – most memorably at the 2002 World Cup in South Korea, where the USA won the group and Paraguay were eliminated. Their most recent meeting was a November 2025 friendly which the USA won 2-1 in Pennsylvania, with Gio Reyna scoring after coming off the bench. Paraguay also defeated the USA 2-1 in a pre-World Cup friendly in June 2025 in Austin, Texas – a result that highlights how dangerous Alfaro’s side can be against the hosts. The head-to-head is broadly even over time, with the USA holding a slight advantage, but the competitive nature of these encounters suggests this will not be a comfortable evening for Pochettino’s men.

Last 5 Matches

Tactical Breakdown

Pochettino’s preferred shape has evolved throughout his tenure but is expected to settle into a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 for the tournament, with Pulisic operating in a free role behind or alongside the striker, McKennie providing the engine in midfield, and Adams sitting as the deepest midfielder. The key question is at centre-forward: Pepi’s club form makes him almost impossible to leave out, but Pochettino has been curiously sparing with his usage in recent internationals. Folarin Balogun and Haji Wright provide alternatives but lack Pepi’s current goalscoring rhythm. The USA’s width, provided by Robinson at left-back and Tim Weah or Buchanan on the right, will be crucial against a Paraguay side that defends narrow.

Alfaro will set up Paraguay to frustrate. Expect a deep 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1, with the two banks of four compressing space centrally and inviting the USA to try to play through a congested middle. When possession is won, Almirón and Enciso are the triggers for rapid transitions – both have the pace and vision to exploit the spaces left behind advancing American full-backs. Set pieces are another avenue: Gómez and Alderete are commanding in the air, and the USA have historically been vulnerable from dead-ball situations.

SoFi Stadium, an enclosed venue in Inglewood with a capacity of over 70,000 for the World Cup, removes weather as a variable – the indoor environment is climate-controlled, meaning no heat, humidity, or altitude concerns. The atmosphere will be overwhelmingly pro-American, and the emotional weight of a first home World Cup match in 32 years cannot be overstated. Paraguay, however, are a side hardened by the cauldron of South American qualifying – playing in La Paz, Barranquilla, and Buenos Aires – and the noise of a US crowd is unlikely to rattle them.

Predicted Line-ups

USA Predicted XI

Freese (or Turner) – Freeman, Richards, Ream, Robinson – Adams, McKennie – Weah, Pulisic, Aaronson – Pepi

Paraguay Predicted XI

Fernández – Cáceres, G. Gómez, Alderete, Riveros – Bobadilla, Cubas – D. Gómez, Almirón, Enciso – Sanabria

Where to Watch: UK TV & Streaming

USA vs Paraguay kicks off at 02:00 BST on Saturday, 13 June – a late-night slot for UK viewers, though it follows the Friday evening fixtures and slots neatly into a World Cup opening weekend binge. The match is live on BBC, with free streaming available via BBC iPlayer. For those unable to stay up, highlights will be available on both BBC and ITV platforms the following morning.

Odds Comparison & Betting Analysis

At 2/5, backing the USA outright offers virtually no value – but then, they ought to win this match. The more interesting angles lie in how the match unfolds. Paraguay are built to frustrate: Alfaro’s qualifying record included clean sheets against Colombia and a series of 1-0 results, and his side will sit deep and dare the USA to break them down. Under 2.5 goals at around 4/5 is our preferred route. Three of the four recent meetings between these sides have produced two or fewer goals, and Paraguay’s defensive structure is specifically designed to limit high-quality chances. The hosts may need patience, and this match could easily be decided by a single goal in the second half once Paraguay’s energy drops. BTTS at even money also carries appeal – Paraguay beat the USA 2-1 in June 2025, and their counter-attacking quality through Almirón and Enciso means they are more than capable of nicking a goal even in a game they are expected to lose.