Turkey vs USA: World Cup 2026 Predictions, Betting Tips & Odds (25.06.2026)

The fractional odds still make the USA favourites given the gulf in current form, but the gap is narrower than the group standings suggest once a likely rotated American side is factored in. The draw and a Turkey goal both carry appeal given the unusual circumstances of this particular dead rubber.

Turkey Recent Form

Turkey’s tournament has been a story of bad luck and blunt finishing. They lost 2-0 to Australia despite Türkiye having the better of the territory, then somehow lost 1-0 to ten-man Paraguay despite registering 33 attempts in that game alone. Across both matches Vincenzo Montella’s side have had 62 shots without scoring a single goal, a record-breaking drought that has heaped pressure on the Italian, with sections of the Turkish media and public calling for his head after results that fell well short of pre-tournament hype. Captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu and the supporting cast of Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız have created plenty, but a lack of composure in the final third has proven costly. With qualification gone, Montella’s only message to his players has been to restore some pride and finally get on the scoresheet before they go home.

Turkey Key Players

USA Recent Form

The co-hosts have been the story of the group stage, thrashing Paraguay 4-1 before beating Australia 2-0 in Seattle to clinch top spot with a game in hand, a result that already guarantees them a Round of 32 tie at Levi’s Stadium on 1 July. Folarin Balogun has been the standout performer with a brace against Paraguay, while youngster Alex Freeman has also enjoyed a breakthrough tournament. The one downside has been a recurring calf issue for Christian Pulisic, who missed the Australia win as a precaution and could be eased back in gradually or rested again entirely now that nothing is riding on the result. Mauricio Pochettino has a deep, settled squad and is expected to make wholesale changes to manage minutes ahead of the knockout rounds, much as he did during warm-up friendlies that produced wins over Senegal but a narrow loss to Germany.

USA Key Players

Head-to-Head Record

This is a fixture the two countries have rarely played, with their only recent meeting coming in a pre-World Cup friendly window. Turkey were the winners then, and this will be the first time the sides have ever met at a major tournament.

Last 5 Matches

Tactical Breakdown

Montella is unlikely to change his attacking 4-2-3-1 given the players have created enough to score several times over, with the emphasis on his front line to finally show composure in the box. Pochettino, in contrast, has the luxury of resting key men, and expect changes in goal, defence and attack alike as he manages bodies ahead of the round of 32. That combination, a Turkey side with nothing to lose chasing a goal and a USA side missing some of its first-choice quality, points to a tighter contest than the table alone would suggest. Conditions at SoFi Stadium should be warm and dry for the evening kick-off, with no weather factors of note.

Predicted Line-ups

Turkey Predicted XI

Uğurcan Çakır should continue in goal behind a back four of Zeki Çelik, Merih Demiral, Çağlar Söyüncü and Ferdi Kadıoğlu. Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Orkun Kökçü look set to anchor midfield, with Arda Güler and Kerem Aktürkoğlu supporting Kenan Yıldız in attack.

USA Predicted XI

Matt Turner could be recalled in goal as Pochettino rotates his squad, with a back line likely to feature some mix of Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Auston Trusty and Alex Freeman. Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie should retain their places in midfield, with Folarin Balogun leading the line and Christian Pulisic’s involvement the biggest team-news question of the night.

Where to Watch: UK TV & Streaming

This one is live on ITV1, ITVX, STV and STV Player at 03:00 BST, so another night for the dedicated to set an alarm, with highlights also available on the BBC’s platforms the following morning.

Odds Comparison & Betting Analysis

The USA’s price still reflects their superior quality, but it is noticeably shorter elsewhere in this group than it would be for a side with a Round of 32 place already wrapped up, a sign the market is pricing in the chance of rotation. Turkey’s price of around 9/4 looks fair given their wastefulness in front of goal, but the appeal lies in markets built around them finally scoring rather than picking up the three points outright.