Senegal vs Iraq: World Cup 2026 Predictions, Betting Tips & Odds (26.06.2026)

Senegal go off as clear favourites at around 4/11, with the draw around 16/5 and Iraq out at roughly 13/2. The Lions of Teranga have far more individual quality and a genuine incentive to chase a big scoreline, while Iraq’s defence has shipped seven goals in two games against the group’s two strongest sides.

Senegal Recent Form

Pape Thiaw’s side have made hard work of this group so far, losing 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway despite scoring three goals of their own — Ibrahim Mbaye and a stoppage-time Ismaila Sarr brace among them. Senegal sit bottom on goal difference but are not yet out of the third-place picture, and a comfortable win here would meaningfully boost those chances. Thiaw’s 4-3-3 leans on a settled defensive block built around captain Kalidou Koulibaly, with Idrissa Gana Gueye screening in front of him, but both have been exposed by sharper attacking sides than the one they face here. Sadio Mané, 34 and playing what he has confirmed will be his last World Cup, is yet to get on the scoresheet at this tournament — a notable gap given his standing as the squad’s all-time top scorer. Off the pitch, Senegal arrive with an unresolved distraction: their Africa Cup of Nations triumph in January was stripped by CAF after a players’ walkout protest during the final, with the trophy retroactively awarded to Morocco.

Senegal Key Players

Iraq Recent Form

Graham Arnold’s side have given everything they have and still come up well short, beaten 4-1 by Norway and 3-0 by France either side of a respectable run of warm-up results that included a draw with Spain. Aymen Hussein’s headed equaliser against Norway remains Iraq’s only goal of the tournament, and their defensive resolve in the playoff run that beat Bolivia to seal qualification — built on compact shape and disciplined low-block defending — has been overwhelmed by the pace and quality of Group I’s two heavyweights. There is a genuine subplot in goal: long-serving captain Jalal Hassan was a surprise omission from the squad that lost to France, with understudy Ahmed Basil given the gloves instead, and it remains to be seen which of the two starts here. Iraq’s realistic ambition now is a first World Cup win in the country’s history and a send-off worthy of a remarkable qualifying story.

Iraq Key Players

Head-to-Head Record

Senegal and Iraq have never met before at a major tournament, and fixtures between the two are rare at any level given they sit in different confederations. With no meaningful history to draw on, this preview leans entirely on current form and squad quality rather than past meetings.

Last 5 Matches

Tactical Breakdown

Thiaw’s 4-3-3 will look to dominate the ball and use the width of Ismaila Sarr and Krepin Diatta to stretch a deep Iraqi block, while Jackson and Mané look to combine centrally. Arnold’s Iraq, by contrast, will sit in and look to break through Hussein and Al-Hamadi’s partnership on the counter, much as they did in the playoff win over Bolivia, where they had just 32 per cent possession but were clinical when it mattered. With both sides already out of contention for the top two, the tactical picture is shaped as much by motivation as by system: Senegal need goals to give themselves any sliver of a third-place chance, while Iraq have nothing to lose and every reason to throw bodies forward in search of a historic first win. Conditions in Toronto should be mild and dry, around 21°C with little rain forecast, which should suit a game that has goalmouth incident written all over it.

Predicted Line-ups

Senegal Predicted XI

Thiaw is expected to go with his strongest available 4-3-3: Édouard Mendy in goal; a back four of Ismail Jakobs, Kalidou Koulibaly, Moussa Niakhaté and El Hadji Malick Diouf; Idrissa Gana Gueye, Pape Matar Sarr and Habib Diarra across midfield; with Ismaila Sarr, Nicolas Jackson and Sadio Mané leading the attack.

Iraq Predicted XI

Arnold is likely to stick with a compact defensive shape: either Jalal Hassan or Ahmed Basil in goal; a back four of Hussein Ali, Manaf Younis, Merchas Doski and Zaid Ismail; Amir Al-Ammari, Zidane Iqbal and Ibrahim Bayesh across midfield; with Ali Jasim, Aymen Hussein and Ali Al-Hamadi forming the front line.

Where to Watch: UK TV & Streaming

Senegal vs Iraq is being shown live in the UK on ITV4 and ITVX, kicking off at 8pm BST — the same moment as the simultaneous Norway vs France clash, which has the main ITV1 slot. As with every World Cup 2026 fixture, highlights will also be available on the BBC and iPlayer for anyone who misses the live broadcast.

Odds Comparison & Betting Analysis

Senegal’s 4/11 reflects a comfortable favourite’s price rather than an overwhelming one, which makes sense given how shaky they have looked defensively in this tournament. The more interesting number on the card is Senegal handicap −1 at around 5/4 — with genuine motivation to chase goals rather than settle for a routine win, and Iraq having conceded seven in two games against stronger opposition, that looks like better value than the straight match-result price.