Paraguay vs Australia: World Cup 2026 Predictions, Betting Tips & Odds (25.06.2026)

The fractional odds make this a tight contest, with Australia available at a shorter price than Paraguay and the draw also well-backed given a stalemate would be enough to send the Socceroos through on goal difference. Both sides have shown defensive discipline at this tournament, and a low-scoring, tactical affair looks the most likely outcome.

Paraguay Recent Form

Paraguay were brushed aside 4-1 by the USA in their opener but bounced back in eye-catching fashion against Türkiye, going 1-0 up inside 65 seconds through Matías Galarza, the fastest goal of the tournament so far, then somehow holding on after Miguel Almirón became the first player ever sent off under the new rule against covering one’s mouth in a confrontation. Gustavo Gómez was outstanding in marshalling a back line reduced to ten men for the entire second half. That win eliminated Türkiye and kept Gustavo Alfaro’s side firmly in contention, but the celebrations were tempered by confirmation that Almirón’s red card rules him out of this match through suspension, a significant loss of leadership and craft in behind the front line. Warm-up form had been mixed, with wins over Greece and Nicaragua either side of a 2-1 defeat to Morocco, so this Paraguay side is capable of good performances without ever looking entirely settled.

Paraguay Key Players

Australia Recent Form

Australia have been one of the surprise packages of the group stage, beating Türkiye 2-0 in their opener thanks to goals from Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe, with debutant goalkeeper Patrick Beach the star of the show ahead of more experienced captain Mathew Ryan. They could not back that up against the USA, beaten 2-0 in Seattle after an unfortunate own goal and a header from Alex Freeman, but the underlying performance was competitive and tactically sound under Tony Popovic. The pre-tournament form line read well too, with a 5-1 thrashing of Curaçao and a 1-0 win over Cameroon either side of a draw with Switzerland, although a 1-0 defeat to Mexico in their final send-off match was a reminder they can be got at on the road. The biggest concern remains the absence of influential midfielder Riley McGree through injury, a loss Popovic has had to plug with Jackson Irvine and Connor Metcalfe taking on extra responsibility.

Australia Key Players

Head-to-Head Record

The two sides have never met at a World Cup and have only crossed paths twice before, both times in Australia and both ending without a Paraguay win. Current Socceroos boss Tony Popovic was actually on the scoresheet himself the last time these two faced off as players.

Last 5 Matches

Tactical Breakdown

Expect Gustavo Alfaro to shuffle his midfield without Almirón, likely turning to Diego Gómez or Braian Ojeda to add some control, while keeping faith in a deep, well-organised back line built around Gustavo Gómez and Omar Alderete that showed real resolve even with ten men against Türkiye. Tony Popovic, for his part, has options at the back, with Souttar, Burgess, Bos and Trewin all capable of starting, and a decision to make in goal between the inexperienced but assured Beach and the more battle-hardened Ryan. With qualification for the knockouts on the line for both, expect a cagey start with neither side wanting to be caught out at the back, and set pieces could prove decisive given the aerial threat both teams carry. Conditions at Levi’s Stadium in late June should be mild and dry, with no weather or altitude factors of note.

Predicted Line-ups

Paraguay Predicted XI

Orlando Gill is set to continue in goal behind a back four of Juan Cáceres, Gustavo Gómez, Omar Alderete and Agustín Sández. Diego Gómez and Braian Ojeda should anchor midfield in Almirón’s absence, supporting Julio Enciso and Hugo Cuenca either side of a front line led by Antonio Sanabria.

Australia Predicted XI

Tony Popovic has a selection call to make in goal, with Patrick Beach in line to keep his place ahead of Mathew Ryan after two impressive performances. Harry Souttar and Cameron Burgess look set to anchor the back line, with Jordan Bos and Kai Trewin providing width. Jackson Irvine and Connor Metcalfe should pair up in midfield, with Nestory Irankunda and Mohamed Touré supporting a lone striker.

Where to Watch: UK TV & Streaming

This one falls outside the BBC and ITV’s live group-stage selections at such an unsociable hour, so UK fans are best served checking listings closer to the day, with highlights available on both broadcasters’ platforms the following morning. Kick-off is at 03:00 BST, so this is one for the night owls.

Odds Comparison & Betting Analysis

Australia’s shorter price reflects their goal-difference cushion as much as current form, since a draw is enough to send Popovic’s side through regardless of what happens between the USA and Türkiye elsewhere. That cushion is exactly why the draw at around 5/2 carries appeal, alongside the under 2.5 goals market given both sides have shown they can grind out tight results when it matters. Paraguay’s price of around 11/5 looks fair rather than a bargain, given they must not only win but do so without the suspended Almirón pulling the strings.