Panama vs Croatia: World Cup 2026 Predictions, Betting Tips & Odds (23.06.2026)

Croatia are favourites at around 1/2, with the draw priced at roughly 3/1 and Panama out at 11/2. A Croatia win remains the logical headline pick, though their leaky display against England suggests goals at both ends shouldn’t be ruled out.

Croatia Recent Form

Dalić’s side produced a real rollercoaster against England, twice pulling level through Martin Baturina and Petar Musa either side of the interval before Jude Bellingham and a late Marcus Rashford strike completed a 4-2 defeat. There was plenty for Croatian fans to admire in the way they competed for long spells, but the two goals conceded continue a recent trend of defensive vulnerability that has crept into Dalić’s setup. Luka Modrić, now 40 and playing his fifth World Cup, ran the game from midfield for large periods and remains the side’s clear leader, while Joško Gvardiol’s pace at the back will be needed at full tilt against a Panama side built to break quickly. No fresh injury concerns have emerged since the Group L opener, and Dalić is expected to make at most minor tweaks given the encouraging signs in possession, even if the concession of two goals will have been a point of focus in training.

Croatia Key Players

Panama Recent Form

Thomas Christiansen’s side were competitive throughout against Ghana, only undone by Caleb Yirenkyi’s strike in stoppage time, and there is genuine encouragement in Panama’s camp that they pushed a side many had fancied to win comfortably. Christiansen’s men are built on defensive solidity and a possession-based approach that frustrates more talented opposition, qualities that served them well during an unbeaten run through CONCACAF qualifying. The big team news centres on Adalberto Carrasquilla, who missed the Ghana game entirely having suffered a left abductor tear in the Liga MX final in late May; he remains a doubt to start here but could feature from the bench if his recovery continues on schedule, with his creativity and ball-progression badly missed in the final third against Ghana. Captain Aníbal Godoy and Marseille’s Michael Amir Murillo offer plenty of tournament know-how regardless of Carrasquilla’s involvement, and Panama’s overall structure should remain intact even if their most important playmaker isn’t fully fit.

Panama Key Players

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous history between these two nations. Panama and Croatia have never met before at any level, making this a first competitive meeting between the sides.

Last 5 Matches

Tactical Breakdown

Dalić’s Croatia look to dominate possession through Modrić and Kovačić, patiently working the ball into wide areas before springing Musa or Perišić in behind, but the England game showed gaps can be exploited when their midfield is bypassed quickly. Panama, drilled by Christiansen into a compact, hard-running unit, will look to absorb pressure and break with pace, much as they did effectively for periods against Ghana. Carrasquilla’s potential absence robs Panama of their best outlet for sustained possession, which could push them further into a containment approach reliant on set pieces and transitions to create danger. Toronto’s BMO Field has an open roof, so conditions should be mild for a North American summer night, removing weather as a significant factor, though the late kick-off time for UK viewers means concentration levels watching at home may be more of a factor than anything happening on the pitch.

Predicted Line-ups

Croatia Predicted XI

Dominik Livaković; Josip Stanišić, Joško Gvardiol, Josip Šutalo, Borna Sosa; Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić; Martin Baturina, Mario Pašalić, Ivan Perišić; Petar Musa

Panama Predicted XI

Orlando Mosquera; Michael Amir Murillo, José Córdoba, Fidel Escobar, César Blackman; Aníbal Godoy, Carlos Harvey, Yoel Bárcenas; Alberto Quintero, Ismael Díaz, Cecilio Waterman

Where to Watch: UK TV & Streaming

Panama vs Croatia is live on BBC One and available to stream on BBC iPlayer, with the broadcast running through the night for the midnight BST kick-off. As with every match at this World Cup, the game is completely free-to-air for UK viewers, so night owls won’t need a subscription to catch the action from Toronto.

Odds Comparison & Betting Analysis

The implied probability on a Croatia win sits in the region of 65 per cent, which feels reasonable given their tournament pedigree, though their defensive shape against England raises legitimate questions about how comfortable this could be. Backing the -1 handicap looks risky on that evidence, while both teams to score carries some appeal given Croatia have now conceded in back-to-back competitive outings and Panama showed they can trouble a well-drilled defence in patches against Ghana. With Carrasquilla’s fitness uncertain, Panama’s attacking output may be capped, which lends some weight to the lower end of the goals markets too.