Norway vs Senegal: World Cup 2026 Predictions, Betting Tips & Odds (23.06.2026)

Norway are favourites at around 11/10, with the draw priced near 12/5 and Senegal available at roughly 11/4. It is a tighter contest than the bare form table suggests, given Senegal’s pedigree as African champions and the firepower they carry through their front line.

Norway Recent Form

Stale Solbakken’s side announced themselves on the biggest stage with a thumping 4-1 win over Iraq, Erling Haaland scoring the first two goals inside the opening hour as Norway’s perfect qualifying campaign carried straight over into the tournament itself. It was the kind of statement victory that justifies the talk of Norway as one of this World Cup’s dark horses, with captain Martin Odegaard pulling the strings in midfield and wide players Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb stretching Iraq’s back line at will. Norway conceded their only goal of the game from a set piece, a detail Solbakken will want addressed before facing a Senegal side with genuine height and physicality at the back themselves. With no fresh injury concerns reported in the build-up, Solbakken looks set to name a similar XI to the one that thrashed Iraq.

Norway Key Players

Senegal Recent Form

Pape Thiaw’s side gave the holders a real contest in New York before eventually succumbing 3-1, a result that flattered France somewhat given how competitive Senegal were for long periods through Ismaila Sarr, Nicolas Jackson and the evergreen Sadio Mane, who is playing in what he has confirmed will be his final World Cup. The defeat means Thiaw’s side, the reigning African champions, head into this game already needing a positive result to keep their own qualification hopes firmly in their own hands rather than relying on other results. Senegal’s defence, built around the experience of Kalidou Koulibaly, will know they cannot afford the kind of lapse that let France in for their second goal, particularly against a Norway side who scored four against an Iraq team that defended in a similarly disciplined low block.

Senegal Key Players

Head-to-Head Record

Norway and Senegal have met just once before, a 2006 friendly in which Senegal came out on top, and this World Cup clash represents by far their most significant fixture to date. With two decades between meetings and entirely different squads on both sides, this preview leans on current form far more heavily than that solitary result from the past.

Last 5 Matches

Tactical Breakdown

This looks a fascinating tactical puzzle: Norway’s gameplan against Iraq relied on quick transitions, with Haaland exploiting space left behind a high defensive line, but Senegal’s back four is considerably better equipped athletically to deal with exactly that kind of running than Iraq proved to be. Thiaw’s side will likely look to match Norway’s physicality through the middle while using the pace of Sarr and Jackson on the counter, a method that troubled France for periods even in defeat. The key battle could be in wide areas, where Norway’s Nusa and Bobb will look to isolate Senegal’s full-backs, while Senegal’s own width through Sarr could test Norway’s back line in behind. Both sides have shown they can be breached defensively in their openers, which points towards an open contest rather than the cagey affair the head-to-head price might suggest.

Predicted Line-ups

Norway Predicted XI

Orjan Nyland; Julian Ryerson, Leo Skiri Ostigard, Kristoffer Ajer, David Moller Wolfe; Sander Berge, Patrick Berg; Antonio Nusa, Martin Odegaard, Oscar Bobb; Erling Haaland.

Senegal Predicted XI

Edouard Mendy; Ismail Jakobs, Kalidou Koulibaly, Moussa Niakhate, El Hadji Malick Diouf; Idrissa Gana Gueye, Lamine Camara, Pape Matar Sarr; Ismaila Sarr, Nicolas Jackson, Sadio Mane.

Where to Watch: UK TV & Streaming

Norway vs Senegal is live on ITV1 in the United Kingdom, with streaming available via the ITVX app and website, and STV for viewers in Scotland. Kick-off at MetLife Stadium is set for 01:00 BST, meaning this one falls into the small-hours bracket of the tournament for UK fans, so it may be one for the night owls or for catching the highlights the following morning.

Odds Comparison & Betting Analysis

The match odds imply this is close to a coin-flip once Senegal’s price is accounted for, and the underlying numbers back that up: both sides scored heavily or conceded soft goals in their openers, suggesting neither defence is fully battle-tested yet. The both-teams-to-score price looks tight given Norway shipped one to Iraq and Senegal have the attacking talent through Mane and Jackson to trouble most back lines, while Senegal’s defence, for all its experience, has shown it can be opened up by quality movement in behind, exactly what Norway possess through Haaland. The over 2.5 goals market looks the more appealing angle than searching for value in an unders price against two sides who have scored five goals between them in one match apiece.