Matchday 38 of the Premier League delivers its showpiece fixture as Manchester City and Aston Villa lock horns at Etihad Stadium on at . Manchester City (2.) drew in the kind of form that makes them difficult to respond to. Aston Villa (4.) have scored goals this season and made it count against Liverpool FC (4 - 2). Our AI statistical model weighs up every detail and arrives at a 47% probability for Manchester City securing a crucial home win in the title race.
The Best Bets for Manchester City vs Aston Villa on
Three-Way BetManchester City47%25/49·RollinoT&C's apply | +18
Total Goals Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5 Goals66%2/5·ZizobetT&C's apply | +18
★ Expert TipExpert TipUnder 3.5 Goals56%10/11·ZizobetT&C's apply | +18
Statistical prediction with probability factor
Three-Way BetManchester City 47% · X 22% · Aston Villa 31%Both Teams To Score Yes/NoYes 66% · No 34%Total Goals Over/Under 2.5Over 66% · Under 34%Total Goals Over/Under 3.5Over 44% · Under 56%Correct Score1-110%2-19%2-27%
Manchester City, Aston Villa or draw? Vote now!
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Current odds for Manchester City vs Aston Villa
ProbabilityManchester City47%Draw22%Aston Villa31%
9/2045/1162/13Odd last updated:
7/1518/59/2Odd last updated:
1/215/49/2Odd last updated:
9/2045/1162/13Odd last updated:
7/1518/59/2Odd last updated:1/215/49/2Odd last updated:Manchester City vs Aston Villa: Head-to-Head Record and Current Form
Manchester City Form
Last 5 games
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On the previous matchday, Manchester City went up against AFC Bournemouth and came away with a point at 1 - 1. The result means they head into this fixture looking to find a winner.
Over the past 6 months, Manchester City have won 16, drawn 8 and lost 2 of their 26 games. At home they have picked up 9 wins from 12 fixtures, losing . They have scored 53 goals in total during this period – an average of 2.04 per game.
Over their last 26 matches, Manchester City have found the net 53 times — that's 2.04 goals per game on average. They have conceded 25 goals in the same span, with their home form showing 9 wins and defeats from 12 home fixtures.
Aston Villa Form
Last 5 games
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Aston Villa most recently faced Liverpool FC, winning the match 4 - 2. It was a result that left the squad in confident mood as they travel to Etihad Stadium.
Over the past 6 months, Aston Villa have won 13, drawn 5 and lost 7 of their 25 games. Away from home they have picked up 5 wins from 12 fixtures, losing 3. They have scored 40 goals in total during this period – an average of 1.6 per game.
Aston Villa's most recent 25 games tell an interesting story. They have scored 40 goals (1.6 per game) while conceding 35 (1.4 per game). In terms of away performances specifically, Aston Villa have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their 12 away matches — a record that provides useful context ahead of this trip to Etihad Stadium.
Stats per Game
Manchester City
Aston Villa
Goals scored
Corners
Fouls
Saves
Premier League
Premier League Table
| # | Team | Played | Diff. | Pnts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal London | 37 | 43 | 82 |
| 2 | Manchester City Home | 37 | 43 | 78 |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 37 | 16 | 68 |
| 4 | Aston Villa Away | 37 | 6 | 62 |
| 5 |  Liverpool FC | 37 | 10 | 59 |
Last Meetings
10/26/2025
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Manchester City
1-0
04/22/2025
Manchester City
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
2-1
12/21/2024
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Manchester City
2-1
04/03/2024
Manchester City
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
4-1
Form Trend – Points per Game (Last 5 Matches)
■ Manchester City
■ Aston Villa
