The Falmouth Stakes Tips

The Falmouth Stakes (Friday 14th July) is run over 1 Mile on the July Course at Newmarket, and is a Group 1 Race open to mares and fillies aged 3 or older. It was awarded Group 1 Status in 2004, since when it has been won by the likes of Soviet Song, Goldikova, Integral, and Alice Springs.

Trends (Since 2004)

  • It has been won by seven 4-year-olds, five 3-year-olds, and one 5-year-old.
  • Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 3 winners
  • French-trained horses have won 2 of the last 8 renewals
  • SPs have ranged from 7/4 to 50/1

Major Contenders

Winter

English and Irish 1,000 Guineas winners don’t have the greatest of records when competing here, but this year’s dual 1,000 Guineas winner has made winning Group 1s look easy this season, also winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, there’s a danger that she may not turn-up after three tough races, but she’ll surely be much shorter in the betting if she does.

Laugh Aloud

Brought along steadily in her three-year-old season, connections have been rewarded for their patience as this beautiful daughter of top-sire Dubawi has really come to herself this year. She easily won a Listed Race at Goodwood in May, and then was even more impressive when winning a Group 3 at Epsom in June. She was entered for Royal Ascot, but connections withdrew her presumably with one eye on this race, in which 4-year-olds have an excellent record. Her trainer John Gosden also won the 2014 renewal with another 4-year-old.

Dabyah

Another John Gosden trained filly, but this one represents the classic generation. She won on her seasonal debut in the Group 3 Fred Darling at Newbury, but didn’t take up any of her entries in either the English or French 1,000 Guineas, before running at Royal Ascot. She was only fourth in the Coronation Stakes, beaten over 3-lengths by Winter and, though she has further room for improvement after just 5 runs, it’s asking a lot for here to reverse the form.

Roly Poly

Aidan O’Brien trained 3-year-old filly who has finished second to stablemate Winter on her last two starts. That’s high-class form but, having already had 12 starts, it’s asking a lot of her to suddenly find the improvement needed to win this.

Sea Of Grace

Ran well to be second in the French 1,000 Guineas, and that run was a big step-up on her previous runs. More room for improvement after just 4 runs, and would be a danger to all if soft appears in the going description.

Qemah

Interesting 4-year-old French-trained challenger who has won at Royal Ascot for the last two years. However, she finished over 4-lengths behind last year’s winner Alice Springs at Leopardstown later in the season, suggesting she may come up short.

Summary

Winter will probably be odds-on if she lines up here, but her trainer Aidan O’Brien may opt to give her a rest after winning three Group 1s, something which he did with his 2016 dual 1,000 Guineas winner Minding.

Paddy Powers Falmouth StakesTherefore, with 4-year-olds having such a good record in the race, an ante-post bet on Laugh Aloud is recommended.

Tip: Laugh Aloud

 

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