Betting Tips: The Sussex Stakes

The Sussex Stakes (Wednesday 2 August) is a Group 1 Race run at Glorious Goodwood over a mile. It was originally created in 1841, but since 1975 it has traditionally become the first encounter between the classic generation and the older horses over the mile distance.

Trends

  • 3-year-olds have won 11 of the 17 renewals this century
  • Aidan O’Brien has trained 5 winners this century
  • The Hannon Stable has trained 3 winners this century
  • Godolphin have owned 2 winners this century
  • Winners this century have been returned at prices ranging from 1/20 to 20/1, though 15 of the 17 winners were priced at 9/2 or shorter.

Major Contenders

 

Sussex Stakes Cup Odds
Fig. The Sussex Stakes Cup Odds

Ribchester

One of the three highest-rated horses in Europe, this Godolphin owned 4-year-old has really grown into his huge frame this season, excelling in winning The Lockinge Stakes and The Queen Anne Stakes. Handles any ground, and the only negative is that he must give weight away to the three-year-olds who have a superior record than the older horses this century.

Churchill

This year’s English and Irish 2,000 Guineas winner blotted his copybook at Royal Ascot, but 5 weeks rest may rejuvenate him, and he gets plenty of weight from Ribchester. Three-year-olds have won 7 of the last 9 renewals, and all 5 of Aidan O’Brien’s winners have been 3-year-olds.

Barney Roy

Took his revenge over Churchill at Royal Ascot after finishing second to him in the 2,000 Guineas, and has further room for improvement after just 4 runs. Connections may decide to step him up in trip though, so he is far from a certain runner as Godolphin also own Ribchester.

Mutakkayef

6-year-old, but looked as good as ever when chasing home Ribchester at Royal Ascot. He travelled like a dream there, but couldn’t find enough to pass the likely favourite, and this race is likely to have more strength in depth. Each-way possibilities all the same.

Winter

This season’s dual 1,000 Guineas heroine is an interesting possible substitute for Aidan O’Brien if Churchill doesn’t line up but, if he does, she’s much more likely to stick to races against her own sex for now, though she may challenge the colts later in the season.

Le Brivido

Runner-up in the French 2,000 Guineas before winning the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. Still plenty of room for improvement, but bare form of those runs suggests he’s still got something to find with the principals.

Lightning Spear

Has lots of placed form in Group 1 Company, but has seen Ribchester’s backside on numerous occasions in the last two seasons, and was only sixth in last year’s renewal. Also disappointed at Royal Ascot this year.

Summary

Barney Roy should be still improving after just 4 runs, and the Hannon Stable has an excellent record in the race. However, connections have stated that he may step up to 10-furlongs, meaning this could turn into a class between the 4-year-old Ribchester and the 3-year-old Churchill. Ribchester is respected but, as 3-year-olds have a superior record, and Churchill is a much bigger price than the favourite, Churchill is the tip.

Tip: Churchill

Leave a Reply

Flag Flag Flag Flag