Betting Tips: The Lennox Stakes

The Lennon Stakes is run over 7 Furlongs at the Glorious Goodwood Meeting, and the race was elevated to a Group 2 from a Group 3 in 2003. It’s most famous winner is Paco Boy, who went on to enjoy Group 1 success later in his career.

Trends

  • Nayyir is the only horse to have won the Lennox Stakes twice (2002 and 2003)
  • Since 2003, six winners have been 3-year-olds, five 5-year-olds, and three 4-year-olds
  • SPs of the winners since 2003 have ranged from 5/4 to 16/1
  • Godolphin have owned 4 of the last 12 winners

Major Contenders

 

Lennox Stakes Cup Odds
Fig. The Lennox Stakes Cup Odds

Dutch Connection

Last year’s winner has a fantastic record over course and distance, winning 2 from 3, and finishing second to the high-class Toormore in the 2015 renewal of this race. His recent below-par runs in better company can be forgiven, and this looks sure to be his major target for the season. He’s also a 5-year-old who loves fast ground, and is owned by Godolphin.

Home Of The Brave

Another 5-year-old who is owned by Godolphin, and he has won his two runs over 7-furlongs this season in taking fashion. However, he was beaten 1¾-lengths in second by Dutch Connection in last year’s renewal, and he is yet to win above Group 3 company.

Dream Castle

Three-year-old owned by Godolphin and, after just 4 runs, he is open to plenty of improvement. However, after fading late on over 7-furlongs in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, it would be no surprise if connections tried him over 6-furlongs somewhere instead.

Limato

Last year’s July Cup winner is also very useful over this 7-furlong trip, winning a Group 2 and a Group 1 on his only two runs over it. He would probably go-off a short-priced favourite if he was to run here on decent ground, however connections look more likely to try and win a second July Cup with him.

Aclaim

Has been highly-tried so far this season, and has put up two reasonable performances over a mile in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, and over 6-furlongs in the Group 1 Golden Jubilee. However, he is unbeaten in two runs at this trip, including a Group 2, but the nagging doubt is he didn’t hit peak form until Autumn last season.

Breton Rock

Multiple 7-furlong winner, including at this level, but has yet to hit peak form this season. Would also be the first 7-year-old to win the race and, as his age may be catching up with him, he would only be of interest if the ground came up very soft.

Summary

If connections announce that Limato will run here the 8/1 that is currently available would probably be cut to around 2/1. However, as the bookies are willing to offer such an inflated price, his participation looks unlikely. Aclaim is also interesting having won both his starts at 7-furlongs, but the fact he hit form from September onwards last year puts me off. Therefore, as Godolphin like to target this race, it could be best to concentrate on their trio of Dutch Connection, Home Of The Brave and Dream Castle, with preference for Dutch Connection, who has such as good record over course and distance.

Tip: Dutch Connection

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