Betting Tip: The Nassau Stakes

The Nassau Stakes was first run in 1840, but has been a Group 1 for Mares and Fillies aged 3 and over since 1999. It is run over 1 mile and 2 furlongs, and is one of the highlights of Glorious Goodwood. It has been won by some brilliant fillies this century, including Ouija Board, Midday (3 times), The Fugue, Legatissimo and Minding.

Trends

  • The 17 renewal this century have been won by ten 3-year-olds, five 4-year-olds and two 5-year-olds
  • John Gosden has trained 3 of the last 5 winners
  • Aidan O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 10 winners
  • Khalid Abdulla has owned 4 of the last 8 winners
  • SPs of the winners this century ranged from 1/5 to 20/1, though 10 of the 17 winners were sent-off favourite

Major Contenders

 

Fig. The Nassau Stakes Odds

Rhododendron

Aidan O’Brien’s 3-year-old has had a tough season so far, finishing runner-up to stablemate Winter in the 1,000 Guineas, and then occupying the same position when behind Enable in the Oaks. Her run in the French Oaks probably then came too soon for her but, though she did win at Glorious Goodwood last season, it’s asking a lot of her to bounce back here.

Shutter Speed

Won her first three starts in impressive fashion for John Gosden, and was then sent-off at just 2/1 for the French Oaks where she finished fourth after travelling like the best filly for much of the way. That was the first time she’d really been asked a question though, and that may mean she improves greatly for the experience. Owned by Khalid Abdhulla.

Nezwaah

Had some good form as a 3-year-old, but has looked a much better horse this season. She was backed like defeat was out of the question when winning a Listed Race on her seasonal debut, and was backed from 12/1 into 13/2 when winning a Group 1 in Ireland by over 3-lengths. Full of confidence after those two runs, she looks likely to give the market leaders plenty to thinks about here, despite having to concede weight to the 3-year-old fillies.

Seventh Heaven

Last year’s Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks winner has started the season in good form, with a second to Jack Hobbs in Meydan followed by an easy win in a Group 2 at Newmarket. However, after looking good over 12-furlongs, the drop down to 10-furlongs here may not put enough emphasis on stamina for her to show her best.

Winter

7/1 is a massive price for a horse that has already won the English 1,000 Guineas, the Irish 1,000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes. She certainly looks capable of stepping up in trip to 10-furlongs, but the vibes are that she has other targets on her agenda.

Queen’s Trust

Second to Minding in this race last year, and again showed her best form over this trip when winning at the Breeders’ Cup. Looked to be coming back to form last time at Royal Ascot, and could be at her best here, but must concede weight to the 3-year-olds.

Summary

Queen’s Trust and Nezwaah are two 4-year-olds that are capable of winning, but the percentage call is a good 3-year-old will beat a good 4-year-old getting weight. Therefore, this may become a battle between Rhododendron and Shutter Speed, with the latter preferred for trainer John Gosden and owner Khalid Abdhulla.

Tip: Shutter Speed

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