Thursday (08/03/2017) Horse Racing Tips

A wonderful racing week continues and here are the highlights from the Goodwood and Galway festivals, with ratings included:

2.15 Galway – Guinness Open Gate Brewery Novice Chase, 2m2f Grade 3

Townshend
Just steadily improving thus far over fences but won very easily last time and will peak over these obstacles here, does have a small penalty though.

Don’t Touch It
A very consistent sort and bound to be popular, been going well in handicap  chases and will be more hardened than some.

Peregrine Run
Made a reasonable impression in his three chase starts to date, the bare form looking some way below what is required but more improvement is expected.

Landofhopeandglory
The four-year-old of Joseph O’Brien’s deserves his place in the field but his first two chasing performances leave him with plenty to find.

148 Townshend
148 Don’t Touch It
142 Peregrine Run
130 Landofhopeandglory

Summary
Hard to separate a couple of them but there would probably be more potential in TOWNSHEND and though and the combination of Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh is a well tested one.  Don’t Touch It could be the best of the rest.

 

2.25 Goodwood – Lillie Langtry Stakes, 1m6f Fillies & Mares Group 3

Endless Time
A pretty consistent performer at this sort of trip and handles this going.  Has been considered a Group One performer and could come back to her best here.

Melodic Motion
Although not as deep as this, it was fairly soft at Nottingham when she ran well last backend so that is encouraging.  Very much on the upgrade.

Natural Scenery
Just didn’t quite get there under Josie Gordon in the Northumberland Plate and should be suited by this trip.  The ground won’t be a problem and she still has more to give.

Diamonds Pour Moi
Still early days for this one and off the track since a disappointing show in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May.  Won on heavy last Autumn over 1m4f as a three-year-old and is made for this if fit enough to do herself justice.

Rich Legacy
Ran quite well in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks last time but is perhaps not necessarily suited by this sort of ground.

Wild Irish Rose
Had a bit in hand when winning at Leopardstown last time over this trip and that represented a fair step up on her previous efforts.

115 Endless Time
111
Diamonds Pour Moi
109
Melodic Motion
109
Natural Scenery
106 Wild Irish Rose
99 Rich Legacy

Summary
There is precious little to separate a few of these but Godolphin’s ENDLESS TIME could yet prove to be a class above these and is taken to score.  Diamonds Pour Moi may be next best if fit enough.

 

3.00 Goodwood – Richmond Stakes, 6f 2yo Group 2

Cardsharp
Mark Johnston knows how to get the job done at this track and although penalised for his July Stakes win, this one will battle on all the way to the line in the conditions.

Barraquero
Hard to know how he’ll handle the going, but certainly won his novice race very easily last time at Chepstow and is well thought of at home.

Headway
Only raced on fast ground so far, including when a very good second in the Coventry, and breeding doesn’t give an awful lot of encouragement in that sphere.

Nebo
Well beaten in the Coventry but made a very striking debut on soft ground before perhaps not showing his best over 7f in the Superlative Stakes, though only beaten a head.  Big chance.

US Navy Flag
Has worked hard, beaten by Cardsharp last time but has a weight pull now.  May or may not get to the Johnston challenger but that won’t be the only one to get past.

110 Nebo
109
Cardsharp
108 US Navy Flag
107
Headway
104
Barraquero

Summary
Charlie Hills’ NEBO may well be overpriced here given that his best form (in relative terms) came on very soft ground.  Cardsharp may be able to once again fend off US Navy Flag despite the weight difference.

 

3.25 Galway – Corrib Fillies’ Stakes, 7f Listed Race

Orangey Red
Steadily getting better and with conditions apparently ideal, she may go well.

Raymonda
No win in three this season but she has been highly tried.  She hasn’t been the most consistent performer but at her best looks as good as any of these.

Drumfad Bay
Won over a mile last time but her best performances have arguably been over this trip.  She’s carrying a small penalty for her Listed win here.

Alphabet
Not one of Coolmore’s superstars right enough, but the step up in trip will surely bring about some improvement.

I’m So Fancy
Only six runs into her career and on a very steep upward curve.  Another jump forward here could take her right to the front, but it’s hard to evaluate exactly what level she can reach at this stage.

Music Box
Beaten narrowly by Drumfad bay (has a 3lb pull now) and again last time at Naas when improving.  Likely to take another step forward here to put herself right at the head of affairs.

105 Music Box
105
Raymonda
100 Alphabet
100
I’m So Fancy
98
Drumfad Bay
98
Orangey Red

Summary
Close again on ratings, though Raymonda is inconsistent whereas MUSIC BOX is on the upgrade and a chance is taken on her.  Alphabet and I’m So Fancy have place chances also.

 

3.35 Goodwood – Nassau Stakes, 1m2f Fillies & Mares Group 1

Nezwaah
Improved a great deal to win her Group One in Ireland last time and deserves to have another crack at the top grade, however she’s definitely better on faster ground and may get a little stuck in these conditions.

Queen’s Trust
The Stoute team are in tremendous form right now but the Dansili four-year-old is another who has shown her best on fast ground.

So Mi Dar
John Gosden is a past master with these types and crucially, she’ll have no trouble handling this surface.  She’s a very lightly raced filly four a four-year-old and makes a belated seasonal return here, though has always won when fresh so a new best is expected.  Looks a genuine Group One filly.

Shutter Speed
Has a massive future, of that there is no doubt, but hated the ground despite winning at York in the Musidora so there is no reason to think she’ll suddenly perform better here.  She will win a Group One, it just probably won’t be this one given the conditions.

Winter
The admirable filly has been in excellent form since joining the O’Brien team over the, well winter, and although her form is utterly bombproof it doesn’t mean she will improve much.  She may handle the ground, but won’t necessarily be at her best on it.

Wuheida
Like Shutter Speed, I’ve been waiting patiently to see this horse again and this time her breeding offers some encouragement that the ground may not be too much against her.  Made a good belated return at Newmarket and will strip much fitter here after her injury and has lofty targets.

122 So Mi Dar
119
Wuheida
118
Winter
112
Nezwaah
112 Queen’s Trust
112 Shutter Speed

Summary
Given her record on this ground and when fresh, SO MI DAR can be relied upon to run up to her best and that may be good enough to fend off three-year-olds Wuheida and Winter.

 

4.35 Galway – Galway Hurdle, 2m Handicap Hurdle

Max Dynamite
Hasn’t raced over hurdles since 2015 but his flat form offers enough encouragement of a big run.

Tigris River
The six-year-old ran his best race last time and did it comfortable, albeit over 2m4f.  Looks primed for a very big run here and could be well-in.

Automated
Won a decent flat race at Leopardstown in June and should strip very fit for this.

Ornua
Won his maiden very easily at the fourth attempts and may have gotten in here off a very workable weight.  Makes plenty of interest for a powerful yard.

Western Boy
A tidy winner at Punchestown last time out but up a fair bit in the weights now.

Timiyan
Two from two since joining Gordon Elliott and very much on the upgrade, this requires more though.

154 Ornua
150
Tigris River
145
Max Dynamite
145 Automated
142 Western Boy
142 Timiyan

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