Rafael Nadal vs Guido Pella | Tennis Betting Tip, Prediction & Odds

Tennis Teaser

The ATP Masters in Montreal continues with the round-of-16 matches this Thursday. The defending champion and top-seeded Rafael Nadal meets the unseeded Guido Pella who’s playing in a good form, so we expect to see an entertaining match even though Rafa is a runaway favorite to reach the quarterfinal. 

Rafael Nadal vs Guido Pella

Rafael Nadal News & Form

Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal

The reigning champ opened with a straight-set victory over World No. 53 Daniel Evans 7-6 6-4. Rafael Nadal lost his serve twice and had a lot of problems to beat Evans who put on a strong performance. Likewise, Rafa saved a couple of set points in a tiebreak of the opening set.

It was Nadal’s first match since his semifinal exit at Wimbledon. He looked rough at the start of the clash, but Rafa will be pleased with his second-set display. Nadal is 38-6 this season and 16-2 at the ATP Masters, winning the title in Rome and at Roland Garros.

Guido Pella News & Form

After a straight-victory over the 15th seed David Goffin in the opener, Guido Pella defeated World No. 39 Radu Albot in three sets 6-3 2-6 7-6 in the second round. Pella deserved his victory over Albot, earning eight points in the total more than his rival while winning 42% of points on his return.

Pella has been playing very well lately, winning eight of his last ten matches. He reached the last eight at Wimbledon and last four in Los Cabos. Pella is 31-17 this season and 7-5 at the ATP Masters, winning the first title in his career at the ATP 250 in Sao Paulo. Guido is 6-5 on a hard court this year and 33-47 in his career.

Nadal vs Pella Head to Head

This will be the fourth meeting between Rafael Nadal and Guido Pella, and Pella hasn’t won a set so far. They met once this season, and Nadal defeated Pella 7-6 6-3 in Monte Carlo on clay. Their first encounter occurred on a hard court, and Nadal allowed Pella five games in Indian Wells back in 2017.

Payout Ratio

Betting Odds and Predictions: Nadal vs Pella

Despite Guido Pella’s good form, the bookies are pretty sure the Argentinian doesn’t stand a chance against Rafael Nadal. Rafa is a 1/14 favourite with BetVictor, while Sky Bet offers 8/1 odds on Pella to reach the quarterfinals. Nadal is a 1/4 favourite to win in straight sets with BetVictor which tells you a lot about the bookies’ expectations.

Likewise, Nadal is a 4/11 favourite to cover a 4.5-game handicap with Paddy Power that offers 3/1 odds on a tiebreak in this match. Ladbrokes set the line on the total games at 19.5 with both over and under at 17/20 odds.

Our Nadal vs Pella Betting Tip

After a difficult job in the previous round, Rafael Nadal should feel much more comfortable on the court against Pella. However, the odds on Rafa to win in straight sets are not tempting at all, and it’s difficult to find the value in this match.

I would go with the under on the game totals with Ladbrokes, hoping Nadal will be at a high level so that Pella will have a lot of problems to defend his serve. Although Guido played well against Nadal in Monte Carlo, I think Rafa has a huge advantage over Pella on a hard court. Rafa is 3-0 against the left-handers this season, while Pella is 3-2 against the lefties in 2019.