We’re reaching that crunch point of the season where teams in the relegation battle have their last chance to add to their squad before the final 14 matches of the season. This year’s relegation battle looks like it’s going to be a tight one, with just six points separating Watford in 11th place and West Bromwich Albion in 20th. Seven sides in the Premier League have changed managers this season, with differing levels of success, but they are all fighting for the same thing; survival.
In this article I will be taking a look at the bottom eight teams in the Premier League and giving you the reasons why they will stay up or why they will be relegated, as well as predicting who I think will go down and what good value bets there are out there.
Bournemouth – 13th
Why They’ll Stay Up
Bournemouth have an excellent manager in the shape of Eddie Howe and they also have some quality players such as Nathan Ake, Asimir Begovic and Jermain Defoe. On their day they can beat anyone, as showcased by the recent victories against Arsenal and Everton and with the club unbeaten in their last five matches they look to be moving clear of danger.
Why They Won’t
Goals could be an issue for Bournemouth and with the club averaging only just over one goal per game this season, it is clear that Jermain Defoe’s powers are on the wane.
Will They Go Down?
No, Bournemouth have too many good players and too good of a manager to go down.
Huddersfield Town – 14th
Why They’ll Stay Up
In David Wagner, Huddersfield Town have a smart manager who can drill his team well. Huddersfield Town also have a passionate set of supporters and have a decent enough home record this season.
Why They Won’t
As with a lot of teams down near the bottom of the league, Huddersfield don’t score enough goals. A return of just 19 goals in 25 games is simply not good enough and unless Wagner can find a way to make his team more potent in attack, then they will not survive. Huddersfield haven’t won for seven games in the Premier League and with Manchester United up next, things aren’t going to get any easier.
Will They Go Down?
Yes, I don’t thin Huddersfield have enough quality at either end of the pitch to survive. They look to be sinking like a stone at the moment and it will take a big turnaround in fortunes to save them.
Newcastle United – 15th
Why They’ll Stay Up
Rafael Benitez is, without doubt, the best manager in the bottom half of the Premier League. When Jamaal Lascelles is fit, Newcastle have a very solid defence, with only Brighton and West Bromwich Albion in the bottom half of the table conceding less goals than The Magpies.
Why They Won’t
This Newcastle squad has Championship quality written all over it. For all the talk of a takeover and money to spend in January, that has not happened and Benitez is stuck with Joselu and Dwight Gayle as his strike force. If Newcastle are to fall short, it will be because of a lack of attacking quality.
Will They Go Down?
I think they might; there isn’t enough quality in this squad and with the teams around them strengthening, it could be a tough few months for Newcastle fans.
Brighton & Hove Albion – 16th
Why They’ll Stay Up
Brighton have a solid defence; only West Bromwich Albion have conceded less goals than them this season. That’s about all they have going for them in my opinion though. They have taken a punt of Leonardo Ulloa and Jürgen Locadia to get them the goals and if they can hit the ground running, then they have a chance of survival.
Why They Won’t
This Brighton side are a little too nice; no one is going to be scared to go to Amex Stadium and though they deserve plaudits for trying to play football, sometimes you need to be able to mix it up a little. Chris Hughton has recognised that his side don’t score enough goals and has taken a gamble on Locadia for £15m from PSV. Players coming over from Holland have a pretty mixed record in the Premier League, so it’ll be interesting to see how he gets on.
Will They Go Down?
It’s going to be really hard for them to stay up; no wins in their last five games and just five victories all season don’t make great reading for Brighton fans. It’s going to be a tight one for them and I’ll think they go down in 18th place.
Swansea City – 17th
Why They’ll Stay Up
Swansea survived by the skin of their teeth last season and the fighting spirit they have shown in their last two matches to beat Liverpool and Arsenal suggest they are ready for the fight again this year. New manager Carlos Carvalhal appears to have inspired his side and with three wins and a draw in their last five matches, they look to be finding some good form.
Why They Won’t
They lost Fernando Llorente and Gylfi Sigurdsson in the summer and haven’t replaced them. The new manager has been told there is no money to spend and they are going to have to rely on over the hill players like Wilfried Bony, Wayne Routledge and Nathan Dyer in attack.
Will They Go Down?
I think they’ll survive by the skin of their teeth again. They seem to have a real fighting spirit when it comes to the final stretch and recent wins against Arsenal, Liverpool and Watford have shown what they can do.
Stoke City – 18th
Why They’ll Stay Up
Stoke City have some quality players; Xherdan Shaqiri, Ryan Shawcross, Kurt Zouma, Jack Butland and Jese are all too good to be relegated. The club seemed to stagnate under Mark Hughes, but similarly to Crystal Palace, if they can turn things around then they should have too much quality to go down.
Why They Won’t
It remains to be seen whether Paul Lambert has enough quality to inspire a turnaround in fortunes for Stoke City and despite having a lot of quality players, some of them may not be up for a relegation scrap.
Will They Go Down?
In a word, no. Stoke City have too much quality at both ends of the pitch to go down.
Southampton – 19th
Why They’ll Stay Up
Similarly, to Stoke City, you feel as though this side is too good to go down. Goals have been a problem for The Saints, but with Guido Carillo joining from Monaco and Quincy Promes looking as though he will follow him, I think they have enough good players to stay up.
Why They Won’t
Southampton have been very poor this season, winning just four matches all season and with Charlie Austin now injured, it’s hard to see where the goals are going to come from unless Carillo can hit the ground running.
Will They Go Down?
Despite winning just four times all season, nobody has lost less games in the bottom half of the table than Southampton. If they can start turning some of those ten draws into wins, then I think they will stay up.
West Bromwich Albion – 20th
Why They’ll Stay Up
They’ve brought in Daniel Sturridge, who when fit, is a quality striker. If Sturridge can recapture the form everyone knows he is capable of, then West Bromwich Albion should score enough goals to move clear of the relegation zone. Just like Southampton, they have only lost ten games this season and if they can start turning their 11 draws into wins then they should be safe.
Why They Won’t
Three wins all season shows just how bad this West Bromwich Albion side have been. Alan Pardew has failed to inspire a big turnaround in fortunes and a return of 19 goals from 24 games is not good enough.
Will They Go Down?
If Sturridge can hit the ground running, they will stay up. If he doesn’t, they will be relegated. It’s as simple as that in my eyes.
Conclusion
As you can see, I’ve tipped the three promoted clubs to go down here. At odds of 8/15, Huddersfield Town are currently the favourites for the drop, whilst Brighton and Newcastle are available at odds of 5/4 and 5/2 respectively.
An interesting long shot could be on West Ham United at 12/1. The Hammers are currently just four points outside the relegation zone and with a mounting injury list which includes Andy Carroll, Marko Arnautovic, Winston Reid and Manuel Lanzini amongst others, coupled with a tough fixture list which sees them still to play all of the top eight teams in the league, it could be a tough end to the season for The Hammers.