Las Vegas Raiders – Dallas Cowboys Betting Tips & Odds
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys
- NFL regular season Week 12
- Date: 11/25/2021
- Start time: 04:30 PM ET
- AT&T Stadium, Dallas
High-scoring Thanksgiving matchup on deck
Following a mediocre Thanksgiving opener in Chicago – Detroit we have the best game of the day on our hands in this matchup between the 5-5 Las Vegas Raiders and the 7-3 Dallas Cowboys. The total here sits at 51, which suggests good things for fans of action-packed football and a great improvement in game pace over the Chicago game with a total of 41.
Both of these teams are known for their explosive offenses. Dallas’s Dak Prescott is graded as the 6th-best quarterback through the season by football analyst site PFF, while Las Vegas’s Derek Carr is graded as the 12th-best QB in the league.
Prescott has a 69% pass completion rate and a 7.9-yard average depth of target. Prescott’s receivers have also been impressive with 11.4-yards averaged after successful receptions and a 59% first down rate. Dallas also has a capable rushing offense averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Las Vegas’s Carr is averaging a 68% pass completion rate and a whopping 8.1-yard average depth of target. Vegas’s receivers average 12 yards per reception. As we said, this looks like a strong offensive matchup for both ball clubs on paper!
Key injuries to the Dallas receiving core
While both of these teams are relatively healthy overall, neither squad will have their best receivers available on Thursday night.
Dallas will surely be without wide receiver’s #1 and #2 as CeeDee Lamb is out due to a recent concussion and Amari Cooper is on the COVID-IL since November 19th. Neither star player will be eligible to play here due to the NFL’s concussion & Covid-protocols. It is also worth noting that #3 receiver Michael Gallup only came back from injury two weeks ago and we still haven’t seen a big game out of the 25-year-old.
As for the Las Vegas Raiders, they will be without Henry Ruggs, who was cut by the team after causing a fatal accident. Besides Ruggs, the rest of the receiver core is fully healthy headlined by WR Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller. At this point, we would argue that Las Vegas has a better receiving core than what is available for Dallas.
One defense is not like the other
While we have to note that Las Vegas has been facing a pretty easy schedule so far (ranked 27th in difficulty by ESPN’s strength of schedule metric), the Raiders have been the stronger defense in this game. Vegas is only allowing 9.7 yards to opposing receivers, down 2 full yards from the 2020 seasons. The Raiders also only allow a 6.5-yard average depth of target which is a pretty strong feat when facing a Dallas team that is known to be successful through a deep passing game.
Dallas’s defense on the other end is allowing 12 yards per reception and a 7.5-yard average depth of target. This is another pretty big edge favoring the Las Vegas Raiders here.
Pick: Las Vegas +7 -110 (1.91x) Bet365
We are taking the points with Las Vegas here. Our model projects Dallas to win by 6 points, so while it is only a 1-point edge, we are capturing a key number by getting the +7 at just -110 (1.91x). Las Vegas has the better defense, the higher quality receiving core while the skill gap is minimal between these top-end QBs.
Note: While this is not a big edge, we would still bet Vegas at +7 -120 (1.93x) or better. The model would sit the game out if the spread moves to 6.5.
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