The Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Saturday 9 December) is run over 2-miles and 5-furlongs at Aintree over the Grand National Fences. The race first took place in 1865 but, after ceasing to exist in 1965, it was reinstated to the National Hunt Calendar in 2003.
10-Year-Trends
- Winners have carried between 10-00 and 11-11
- Winners have been rated between 104 and 143
- Winners have been aged 6 to 10, though 8 winners have been aged 8 or 9
- Paul Nicholls has trained 2 of the last 4 winners
- Little Josh was the shortest-priced winner at 7/2
- Lampion Du Bost was the longest-priced winner at 66/1
Major Contenders
Go Conquer
Hampered when trying his luck over these fences in last season’s Topham Chase, but this bold front-running 8-year-old has started the season in fine style with two wins. However, his handicap mark has suffered for those wins, and he’s rated higher than any of the last 10 winners.
Polidam
Had his first start for Willie Mullins back in April, when he was sent-off a short-priced favourite to win a handicap at the Punchestown Festival. Rated 137 that day, a mark similar to 6 of the last 10 winners, he looks a possible big gamble for the race if targeted at it by his Irish connections.
Sametegal
Classy 8-year-old trained by Paul Nicholls, who looks to have a big-handicap in him off his current mark in the low 140’s, and 2 of the last 5 winners have been rated 142 and 143.
O O Seven
His fourth in last year’s Tophan Chase over course and distance was a very creditable effort off a mark of 154, but no horse has won this race off a mark like that.
As De Mee
Won last year’s renewal off a mark of 137, but failed to place in the Topham Chase either side of that victory off marks of 145 and 146. Rated 149 when last seen and, though he could still be improving, he’ll need to be to win this off his current mark.
Double Shuffle
Went well for a long way in last season’s Grand National before being pulled-up when stamina ran out, but showed no ill-effects when second off 151 on his reappearance behind the well-handicapped Romain De Senam. Has more wins in him, but rated higher than typical winners of this race.
Gold Present
Lurking nicely in the weights on a mark of 142, and he jumped beautifully in last year’s Topham Chase up until falling at the twelfth. Not quoted in all bookmakers’ lists though, so perhaps there’s a doubt regarding his participation.
Mercian Prince
Only a 6-year-old, and the way he was backed off the boards on his seasonal debut suggested this youngster has made plenty of improvement over the summer. The bare form of that run, when third behind Betvictor Gold Cup runner-up Starchitect, stands-up well, but he was also unlucky to slip at the second fence that day. His mark in the mid 130’s is also a decent stats-fit, especially if he has improved.
Summary
As De Mee, Go Conquer and Double Shuffle are well-know horses that could have more races in them. However, this may well go to either Polidam or Mercian Prince, as both horses could prove to be much better than their current marks this season. Preference is for Mercian Prince though, as there must be some doubt as to whether Willie Mullins will send Polidam over to England for his first run of the season.
Tip: Mercian Prince each-way @