Defending French league champions Monaco look to make it three wins from three in Ligue 1, as they take on a Metz team who are yet to pick up a point this season.
French Ligue 1 Friday 18th August – 19:45 UK Time
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Draw Best Odd of: 17/4 at Sky Bet |
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FC Metz
AS MonacoFC Metz
Metz have had an awful start to the French Ligue 1 season, losing both of their matches so far and scoring just one goal. A 3-1 home defeat to Guingamp in their opening match wasn’t the sort of result they were looking for, especially after they took the lead.
A trip to Bordeaux was next, where they were outplayed and suffered a 2-0 defeat. Only one team has conceded more than Metz at this early stage of the season and their defence will not be relishing the prospect of taking on a free-scoring Monaco side.
AS Monaco
Champions Monaco suffered a blow in their first competitive match of the season, losing 2-1 to PSG in the Trophee des Champions in Morocco. They soon put that result behind them and started the Ligue 1 season with a closer than expected 3-2 win over Toulouse. Monaco were twice behind but upped their game to pick up maximum points from their opening game.
Next up, they turned on the style away at Dijon with Radamel Falcao netting a hat-trick in a 4-1 win. That took Falcao’s tally to four goals in two games, and meant Monaco have netted seven. Those two wins made it twelve consecutive league victories, including the last ten games of last season, and extended their unbeaten league run to twenty-two matches.
With Metz appearing to have a vulnerable defence, Monaco’s attack will be licking their lips at the prospect of scoring plenty of goals in this game.
Head to Head
The overall head to head record between these sides is pretty close. In 30 meetings since 1994, Monaco have won 13, Metz 10, and there have been 7 draws. However, Monaco hold the edge when it comes to more recent meetings.
The current champions have won the last five meetings without conceding a goal, including 7-0 away and 5-0 at home last season. Metz have only won once in the last eight meetings, and there have been ten matches since the last draw in 2005.
Betting Odds and Predictions
It would take an extremely brave, or foolish, person to bet against Monaco here. The betting odds have them as a red-hot favourite and we think they will win comfortably.
Sky Bet price Monaco at 1/3, with Metz an 8/1 outsider. The draw is priced at 4/1, but we don’t even think Metz have a chance of sharing the spoils here.
For us, it’s all about how to find the best value in backing a Monaco win.
They have won four of the last five meetings by at least two goals, so a bet in the handicap market looks a better bet than just an outright win. Monaco to win with a -1 handicap is 10/11. If you think they will repeat last season’s big victories, you can back them with a -4 handicap at 10/1.
There have been five goals in each of Monaco’s league matches this season, and we think there will be plenty of goal action again here. Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 4/9, with Over 3.5 Goals at 11/10.
Monaco are free-scoring at present and punters can get odds of 1/3 on them scoring 2+ goals in this match, 11/10 for 3+, and 15/2 to score 5 or more.
As for goal scorers, we think Radamel Falcao has to sit top of the list. He was Monaco’s top scorer last season, has already netted four goals from two matches this season, and bagged a brace the last time these teams met.
Falcao is 4/9 to score in 90 minutes, 5/2 to score first, 6/4 for a brace, and 5/1 to score a hat-trick. We think the odds available on him scoring a brace or hat-trick could have been a little higher, but there’s still great potential for a profit.
He took just three minutes to find the net last time out, and is priced at 11/2 to score in the first ten minutes of this match. It’s also short odds of 13/8 for Falcao to score more goals than the opposition here.
Top Betting Tips
Our top betting tip for this match is Radamel Falcao to score in 90 minutes. Sky Bet offer odds of 4/9 and it looks a banker in our opinion. Another bet we find hard to ignore is Monaco to win with a -1 handicap, at odds of 10/11. They are in brilliant goal scoring form and we don’t think Metz will be able to keep up with them.