Chicago Bulls – Golden State Warriors Prediction & Odds
- Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors
- NBA regular season
- Date: 12/11/2021
- Start time: 10:00 PM ET
- Spectrum Chase Center, San Francisco
Strong reasons to question the home team’s dominance
If you follow the Golden State Warriors closely, you probably know that they hold the best record in the league at 10-1 and also with the best adjusted point differential at +13.1.
Surface numbers are extremely strong for Golden State, who are third in offensive rating at 113.9 and first in defensive rating at 100.8. You would think that it was just a strong start, but somehow Steph Curry & Co. are getting better.
If you just filter for games for the last two weeks, the Warriors are sitting with a surreal +21.7 adjusted point differential. It is absolutely insane.
Why are we still doubting Golden State? Because the Warriors did face the easiest schedule in the league, by a large margin. If you just filter for net rating, Golden State played teams that are on average 4.6-points worse than your average NBA team.
Let’s just look at the list and we will also share how our model rates these teams against league average:
- LA Lakers: -0.11
- LA Clippers: +2.68
- Sacramento Kings: -0.96
- OKC Thunder: -6.42
- Memphis Grizzlies: -0.99
- OKC Thunder: -6.42
- Charlotte Hornets: -1.11
- New Orleans Pelicans: -4.07
- Houston Rockets: -6.58
- Atlanta Hawks: 0.70
- Minnesota Timberwolves: -3.19
As you can see, the best team the Warriors faced were the LA Clippers with a +2.68 rating, and the only other team with a positive rating they played are the Atlanta Hawks at +0.70.
It is also important to mention, that the Warriors did build up most of their point differential against the weakest teams on this list.
What happens when the Warriors face a truly good team?
The Chicago Bulls are a very strong contender in the East. Sports bettors were kind of split on the outlook of this team going in, but mostly everyone is on board now.
Chicago is 8-3 on the season with a +7.8 adjusted point differential. Offensively, the Bulls are ranked 7th and defensively 4th. Chicago is outperforming their closing spreads by +5.2 points on average which did skyrocket to +7.0 if we are only looking at the last two weeks.
The Bulls are also first in turnover rate offensively and 2nd in free throw rate.
Health issues might not matter
Chicago won’t be 100% healthy going into this game as the Bulls are without PF Patrick Williams and star center Nikola Vucevic. Vucevic getting injured certainly made this spread grow a few points, but we are not as sure, that it will really matter. If you look at the entire active roster of the Bulls, Vucevic was by far the worst player this year offensively with just 90 points scored per 100 possessions.
While normally missing two starting big men would be an issue, but the Warriors are playing a small-ball lineup and they simply don’t have the size to dominate Chicago as other teams could have. We need to take advantage of getting a handful of extra points with Chicago here due to Vucevic’s injury.
It is also important to note, that Golden State’s second-best player, Draymond Green – who also serves as their small ball-center is questionable to play here with a right tight contusion. Coach Steve Kerr said that it was a pretty ugly contusion that happened just one day ago, so we wouldn’t expect Green to be available on Friday.
Pick: Chicago Bulls +5.5 -110 (1.91x) Bet365
We are going with the Bulls here. This is very likely the more talented overall lineup even with Nikola Vucevic out. Chicago will also get a pass for not having any big men here due to facing a team that puts zero pressure on the basket.
Note: This play has a lot of value according to our model and we would bet Chicago at +4.5 -110 (1.91x) or better.
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