Real Madrid look to finish the job against Barcelona on their home ground, after picking up a 3-1 away win in the first leg of the Spanish Super Cup.
Both teams failed to find a breakthrough in a hard-fought and hotly contested first half, but the action soon livened up after the break. A Gerard Pique own-goal gave Real the lead just five minutes into the second half. This led to both teams pushing forward, with agonisingly close chances at both ends.
However, it took a controversial penalty to level things up. Luis Suarez appeared to dive, the referee pointed to the spot, and Lionel Messi netted the equaliser after 77 minutes. This provoked Real to up to their game to another level and Cristiano Ronaldo restored their lead just three minutes later. The Portuguese international was booked for his celebration and sent off two minutes after that for a second bookable offence, after which he shoved the referee.
Being down to ten-men didn’t prevent Real from pushing forward though, and their pressure paid off with a late goal from Asensio to make it 3-1.
Head to Head
In the last ten competitive meetings, including the first leg of this tie, Barcelona have a slight advantage with five victories. Real Madrid have won four, and one has finished level. One thing matches between these sides does bring is plenty of goals. There have been 38 in the last ten competitive matches, with four in the most recent fixture. That number doesn’t include the five goals scored in the International Champions Cup meeting last month. Another interesting statistic is that Real Madrid have had four players sent off in the last five meetings.
Ronaldo will sit this one out after he was handed a five-match suspension following his red card and shoving the referee incident in the first leg. Other than that, we expect the teams to line-up pretty much the same as they did in the first leg.
Betting Odds and Predictions
This game is finely poised, with Real Madrid holding a commanding lead but knowing Barcelona have the quality to dominate any team at any given time. Despite the first leg score, the bookmakers have this evenly matched. Sky Bet offer odds of 13/10 for a Real Madrid victory, 13/8 for Barcelona to win, and 3/1 for the draw.
We aren’t going to attempt to pick a winner here, as it’s too difficult. Past meetings do not really play a factor in El Clasico matches, and it’s too early in the season to judge the form of both teams. Therefore, we are going to try and find bets in other markets which we are confident will give a profit.
Firstly, Both Teams to Score is always a fantastic bet in matches between Real Madrid and Barcelona. Both have scored in 22 of the last 23 meetings. Sky Bet offer odds of 1/4 for Both Teams to Score. Another option is Both Teams to Score in Both Halves at odds of 11/2. We believe there’s a great chance of this happening but the odds are a little low, when in other matches they usually vary between 10/1 and 25/1.
Obviously, if we believe both teams will score, we think this will be a high scoring game. There have been 38 goals in the last ten competitive games, and Over 3.5 Goals is priced at 4/5 here. There aren’t usually draws between these sides, so Both Score No Draw looks a solid bet at odds of 8/11.
As for goal scorers, Lionel Messi has netted four goals in the last three meetings and should be top of the list when backing a player to score in this match. It’s 11/10 for him to score in 90 minutes, and 9/2 for him to score the first goal. You can also get odds of 4/1 on Messi netting a brace and 22/1 for a hat-trick.
Top Betting Tip
Our top betting tip for this match is Both Teams to Score, at odds of 1/4 with Sky Bet. Although this doesn’t provide the greatest value, it does offer a fantastic chance of making a profit.