Following a goalless draw last week, Lech and Utrecht meet again for the second leg of the UEFA Europa League third qualifying round.
Lech Poznan Form
Lech Poznan got their Europa League campaign underway on 29th June, as they took on Macedonian side Pelister in the first qualifying round. The Polish team made simple work of that, winning 4-0 at home and 3-0 away. Next came a second qualifying round tie against Haugesund from Norway, in which they lost the first leg 3-2. Their fighting spirit was what ultimately saw them stay in the competition, having been 3-0 down in that first leg only to pull one back with fifteen minutes remaining and then net a second late in stoppage time.
Those proved to be two vital goals as Lech won the second leg 2-0 to advance with a 4-3 aggregate victory. They have played three games of their domestic league season, drawing the first, losing the second, and then winning the third. The first leg draw took Lech to twelve Europa League qualifying games unbeaten, with ten wins and two draws.
Utrecht started their Europa League in the second qualifying round, with a tie against Maltese side Valletta FC. After a goalless first leg, the Dutch side dominated the second and picked up a 3-1 victory to move through to this round.
With their domestic league season still over a week away, it’s just friendly matches and the few games in this competition where we can look at form. Since an opening friendly win over Jodan Boys, Utrecht have drawn four matches and lost two. Their only victory was the second leg against Valletta, which isn’t ideal form to bring into such an important match. They haven’t made the group stages of this competition since 2010/11, and they are up against it here.
Head to Head
The goalless draw in the first leg is the only previous meeting between these two teams.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Lech Poznan have a superb record in qualifiers for this tournament. They are also a better team at home than they are away, which means they should be able to better their result from the first leg. Which is why we’re a little surprised at the betting odds available for them to win here. They are favourites, as expected, but Sky Bet are offering 5/6 on a Lech victory. We thought they would be shorter odds than that.
Utrecht are 3/1 for the win, and the draw is priced at 9/4. With Lech having such a solid record in this competition, we can’t see them failing to make it through. They are 8/11 to qualify, although we would probably back them to win in 90 minutes at a better price.
Lech have been free-scoring in this competition, not including the first leg of this tie, scoring eleven goals in four games. They average six at home in the first two qualifying round matches, and we expect them to score at least a couple here. The home side to score 2 or more goals is priced at 1/1 with Sky Bet and worth a punt. 3 or more is 7/2 and is extremely tempting.
We think Utrecht’s best chance of making it through to the next round is by getting a score draw. For that reason, if you want to back the visitors here we recommend the Double Chance market of Utrecht or Draw at odds of 4/5. Another option is backing Utrecht to qualify at 1/1. Unfortunately for Utrecht, we cannot see anything but a Lech Poznan win here and we are tempted to have a punt on Lech and Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 21/10.
Top Betting Tip
This one is simple, with our top betting tip being a Lech Poznan victory. They are a decent price of 5/6 with Sky Bet and we are confident of a profit.