In the Brazilian Serie A league on Wednesday night, early Thursday morning, we have a great clash between Atletico Mineiro and Corinthians. The home side have been struggling in front of their own fans this season, and with the leaders Corinthians coming to town, they are sure to be in for a tough test in this one.
We have a very good away record, and long unbeaten streak, coming up against a poor home record in this game. I know which team I would rather trust with my money, and the way this game has been priced up will come as a surprise to some.
Atletico Mineiro Form
The season hasn’t gone to plan so far for Atletico Mineiro, they should be doing a lot better than they are with the squad of players. They have quality but so far the results and more importantly the performances to match the squad they have, simply haven’t been there.
One area they must improve on is their home form, usually strong at their home ground, Atletico Minerio have really struggled there this season. They have won just two games from nine at home this season, a terrible record that is a big reason why they are struggling so much in the league. With three of their five defeats at home this season being their last three home games, confidence in the camp is sure to be low.
They have found trouble when trying to hit the back of the net too, scoring just one goal in those three games, while conceding five. New boss Rogerio Micale has a huge task on his hands and this is his first visit to the home dugout, so all eyes will be on him to see what he can bring to lift these players.
Corinthians are running away with the Brazilian Serie A, they have an eight point lead and you could argue they would be in a better position was it not for some questionable refereeing last weekend. They drew 1-1 with Flamengo, but had a perfectly good goal disallowed meaning they could have been heading here with a ten point cushion at the top.
Fabio Carille has his players playing some very good football and they are also grinding out results. They come here with a 32 match unbeaten streak and it is going to take a monumental effort from someone to be able to take that away from them.
Corinthians come into the game having won six of their last eight away games, and they have kept a clean sheet in all but one of those. They have won four of those six games by a score line of 1-0, and they certainly know how to grind out a result.
Striker Fred will miss the game for Atletico Mineiro and he will be a big loss to them. They are already struggling to score goals and without him in the team they are going to struggle much more.
Corinthians have doubts over a handful of players, with late decisions being made about Angel Romero and Marquinhos Gabriel.
Top Betting Tips
I think the bookmakers have priced this game up all wrong. Corinthians are a very good team, playing some quality football away from home and full of confidence thanks to their long unbeaten record. They will head into this game thinking they can win the game, and there is no reason to think they can’t win it.
Atletico Mineiro should be doing a lot better than what they have, and a new manager may force their fortunes to change. However, we have no proof of that happening just yet, and they have lost their last three home games, winning just two of their last nine on home soil. With that record, they are not the type of team I want to be backing.
I am picking Corinthians to win this game, it is not often you will get a price of 9/4 on a team to win a game who are 32 games unbeaten. They know how to grind out 1-0 victories, winning four of their last six away games by that score line, so it also makes sense to back that score line, which you can back at 17/ with Paddy Power.
I may be proven wrong, but in my opinion the bookmakers have priced this game up completely wrong, the teams should be around the same price and Corinthians are far too big to ignore.