Betting Tip: Atletico Madrid vs Napoli

The third best team in Spain takes on the third best team in Italy as Atletico Madrid play Napoli in the opening match of the Audi Cup in Munich.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atletico Madrid finished third in La Liga last season and are preparing to once again attempt to topple Real Madrid and Barcelona from the top of the Spanish league.

So far in this pre-season they have played just once, against Deportivo Toluca in Mexico. The game finished goalless and doesn’t really give any indication as to the fitness and form of the players.

Therefore, we must assume the players will be at least a little short of match fitness and may take a while to settle in this match.

Napoli Form

The third placed team from Serie A in 2016/17 have much less of a gap to the top in their domestic league as todays opponents do in theirs. Napoli finished just five points off the top last season, better than the nine behind the season before.

A good pre-season campaign from them may give the players enough confidence to mount an improved title challenge in 2017/18.

This match against Atletico will be their fifth pre-season match, meaning the players should be at a higher level of match fitness than their opponents.

So far, Napoli are unbeaten in friendly matches and will want that run to continue. A 17-0 victory over Anaunia was followed by a 7-0 win over Trento. Then came a 4-1 defeat of Carpi, before they were held to a 1-1 draw by Chievo in their most recent outing.

Head to Head Record

There is no head to head information available for these two teams, which would suggest this is the first ever meeting.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The bookmakers have these two teams pretty evenly matched, with Ladbrokes pricing Atletico Madrid as a slight favourite at odds of 27/20. Napoli are priced at 17/10, and the draw is 23/10.

With the odds suggesting a tight game, we suggest a bet in the Double Chance or Draw no Bet market is the best option here.

Atletico Madrid are priced at 8/11 and Napoli are 1/1 in the Draw no Bet market. The Double Chance option gives odds of 4/11 on Atletico or Draw, 1/4 on Atletico or Napoli, and 1/2 on Napoli or Draw.

With not much information to go on based on head to head or recent games, it may pay to look at last season’s league form to get an understanding of the type of game to expect.

Using statistics from 2016/17 show two teams who are strong defensively. Therefore, we think Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 11/10 could be a fantastic bet. Under 3.5 Goals is priced at 4/9 and could be worth a punt for those looking to just make a profit, regardless of the size of that profit.

Looking in-depth at both teams suggests this match will be extremely close, with solid defensive work cancelling out the potent attacking threat each team has. With that in mind, a low scoring or goalless draw may be a wise bet in the Correct Score market.

It’s 11/2 for a 1-1 draw, and 12/1 for it to finish 0-0. Both are tempting and both have a realistic chance of happening.

With the defensive qualities on show, the odds on either side keeping a clean sheet are also quite tempting. It’s 27/10 for Atletico not to concede a goal, and 3/1 for a Napoli clean sheet.

Top Betting Tip

This match has our experts stumped when it comes to picking a winner, and opting for a draw is also a tough decision to make.

But, with how strong these teams are defensively, we must believe it will be a low scoring affair. Therefore, our top tip for this match is Under 3.5 Goals. This is priced at 4/9 with Ladbrokes and we’re confident of a profit.

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