Southampton FC vs Derby County F.C.: Prediction, Stats & Best Odds

On Saturday at 14:00, St. Mary's Stadium hosts a matchday 42 clash with real implications in the Championship — Southampton FC (7.) against their direct table neighbours Derby County F.C. (8.). Southampton FC have accumulated points this season, scoring and conceding . Their last result — 1 - 5 against Wrexham A.F.C. — left them in high spirits ahead of this crucial home test. Derby County F.C. won 2 - 0 against Stoke City F.C. and have conceded goals per game on average this season. Our statistical model puts the probability of Southampton FC winning and distancing themselves from their rivals at 45%.

Best Odds and Betting Tips for the Championship Clash at St. Mary's Stadium

Three-Way BetSouthampton FC45%8/9·JettBetT&C's apply | +18 Total Goals Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5 Goals64%8/11·RollinoT&C's apply | +18 ★ Expert TipExpert TipOver 2.5 Goals64%8/11·RollinoT&C's apply | +18

Valuable betting tip based on statistics and facts

Three-Way BetSouthampton FC 45% · X 23% · Derby County F.C. 32%Southampton FCXDerby County F.C.Both Teams To Score Yes/NoYes 65% · No 35%YesNoTotal Goals Over/Under 2.5Over 64% · Under 36%OverUnderTotal Goals Over/Under 3.5Over 42% · Under 58%OverUnderCorrect Score1-110%2-19%2-08%

Southampton FC vs Derby County F.C.: who will win?

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The Most Competitive Odds Across All Major Bookmakers

ProbabilitySouthampton FC45%Draw23%Derby County F.C.32%

8/927/1028/11Odd last updated:

17/2011/429/10Odd last updated:

4/513/53/1Odd last updated:

Southampton FC and Derby County F.C.: Form Guide and Statistical Comparison

Southampton FC Form

Last 5 games

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On the previous matchday, Southampton FC went up against Wrexham A.F.C. and came away with all three points at 1 - 5. The result means they carry real momentum into this upcoming match.

Over the past 6 months, Southampton FC have won 16, drawn 7 and lost 8 of their 31 games. At home they have picked up 9 wins from 15 fixtures, losing 2. They have scored 57 goals in total during this period – an average of 1.84 per game.

Over their last 31 matches, Southampton FC have found the net 57 times — that's 1.84 goals per game on average. They have conceded 37 goals in the same span, with their home form showing 9 wins and 2 defeats from 15 home fixtures.

Derby County F.C. Form

Last 5 games

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The most recent game for Derby County F.C. saw them take on Stoke City F.C., with the match ending 2 - 0. The win is a timely confidence boost as they head to St. Mary's Stadium. They now make the trip to St. Mary's Stadium for this Championship clash.

Looking at the past 6 months, Derby County F.C. have taken 17 wins from 32 games – a record that puts their current form into perspective ahead of this trip to St. Mary's Stadium. Their away games during this period have produced 8 victories and 7 defeats. On average they have scored 1.53 and conceded 1.13 goals per game.

Derby County F.C.'s most recent 32 games tell an interesting story. They have scored 49 goals (1.53 per game) while conceding 36 (1.13 per game). In terms of away performances specifically, Derby County F.C. have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their 16 away matches — a record that provides useful context ahead of this trip to St. Mary's Stadium.

Stats per Game

Southampton FC Derby County F.C.

Goals scored

2.5

1.5

Corners

5.6

3.4

Fouls

9.9

11.6

Saves

2.3

2.7

Championship

Championship Table

#	Team	Played	Diff.	Pnts
1	Coventry City F.C.	41	42	84
2	Ipswich Town F.C.	39	29	72
3	Middlesbrough F.C.	41	21	72
· · · 2 places · · ·
6	Wrexham A.F.C.	40	9	64
7	Southampton FC Home	39	15	63
8	Derby County F.C. Away	41	9	63
9	Norwich City F.C.	41	7	58

Last Meetings

10/04/2025

Derby County F.C.
Southampton FC

1-1

Form Trend – Points per Game (Last 5 Matches)

■ Southampton FC ■ Derby County F.C.

Southampton FC vs Derby County F.C.: Our Statistical Model's Top Betting Tip

Table neighbours Southampton FC and Derby County F.C. are as level as the Championship standings suggest — and our AI model has done the hard work to find the best bet in a game where margins are razor thin. The probability of Southampton FC winning at St. Mary's Stadium and moving clear stands at 45%, with best odds of 8/9 at JettBet. In such a tight fixture, the Double Chance 12 at 77% deserves serious consideration. Our best value bet is "Total Goals Over/Under 2.5" — 64% probability, odds 8/11 at Rollino.Best Tip Over 2.5 Goals8/11Place betT&C's apply | +18