The Six Nations resumes on Friday 6 March and Saturday 7 March after a scheduled break in the new-look calendar, giving you a fresh set of fixtures to assess. With players rested and squads reset, Round 4 arrives at a pivotal stage in the championship.
You now face a weekend that could shape the title race and the betting markets alike. With that in mind, you can focus on three carefully selected options that stand out based on current form, context and opportunity.
Six Nations Rugby Betting Tips: Round 4
You enter a decisive stage of the championship, with France driving hard towards the title and pressure building across all three fixtures. This round offers focused value if you target specific margins and markets rather than simple match winners.
| Match | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ireland v Wales | Ireland to win by 8–14 points | 9/2 |
| Scotland v France | France -5.5 handicap | 4/9 |
| Italy v England | First scoring play – England try | 9/4 |
Back Ireland to control territory and pull clear without running up the score in Dublin. Support France to cover a -5.5 line if you expect their pack and kicking game to edge Scotland. In Rome, you can side with England to strike first through early attacking pressure.
Ireland vs Wales Bet 1: Ireland to Win by 8–14 Points
You can see why the handicap market points towards a controlled Irish victory rather than a rout.
Wales arrive in Dublin on a run of 24 defeats in their last 26 Tests, including 14 consecutive Six Nations losses. They are fighting to avoid another wooden spoon, yet their recent display against Scotland showed real resistance. They led entering the final minutes before conceding late, which suggests they can stay competitive for long spells.
Ireland produced a dominant performance against England, but their campaign has not been flawless. A heavy loss to France and a narrow escape against Italy highlight occasional lapses in control.
At the Aviva Stadium, Ireland should have enough structure and depth to manage the contest. However, Wales’ improved edge and motivation to stop the slide make a tight margin realistic.
Recommended angle:
- ✅ Ireland to win
- ✅ Winning margin: 8–14 points
Scotland vs France Bet 2: Back France –5.5 on the Road at Murrayfield
You get a measured handicap line here despite France arriving in Edinburgh with three wins from three. They have beaten Ireland, Wales and Italy with control and accuracy, which explains why most bookmakers list them as clear favourites.
Scotland sit on two victories from their opening three fixtures. They edged past Wales last time out and showed their home edge with a 31–20 win over England at Murrayfield.
The hosts usually raise their tempo in front of their own support, but France bring greater depth and finishing power. A –5.5 line gives you room for a competitive contest while still siding with the side that has set the standard so far.
- Bet: France –5.5 handicap
- Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
- Market angle: Favourites to win by 6+ points
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Italy vs England Bet 3: Opening Score – Back an England Try
England’s campaign has fallen short of expectations, with just one win from three outings. That return has increased pressure on Steve Borthwick’s squad.
You can expect changes, and fresh faces often bring early intensity. Players fighting for places tend to start quickly, especially when given a rare opportunity to impress from the first whistle.
Italy have historically struggled in this fixture, particularly in the Six Nations. England usually assert control through set-piece strength and direct carrying in the opening exchanges.
Why back an England try first?
- Greater squad depth
- Motivation to respond after recent setbacks
- Physical edge in early phases
You should favour England to cross first rather than settle for an early penalty.