Risk Warning: Double chance bets reduce the number of outcomes that lose your stake, but they do not eliminate risk — a single losing outcome still costs your entire stake. Only bet with money you can genuinely afford to lose. For support, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (free, 24/7) or visit begambleaware.org.
What Is Double Chance Betting?
Double chance betting is a football market that allows you to cover two of the three possible match outcomes — home win, draw, or away win — with a single bet. Where a standard match winner (1X2) bet requires one specific outcome, a double chance bet wins if either of two outcomes occurs, and loses only if the remaining one does.
The three double chance combinations are:
| Bet | Wins if | Loses if |
|---|---|---|
| 1X (Home or Draw) | Home team wins or the match draws | Away team wins |
| X2 (Draw or Away) | Match draws or away team wins | Home team wins |
| 12 (Home or Away) | Home team wins or away team wins | Match draws |
Because you are covering two outcomes instead of one, the odds are lower than the equivalent single outcome. You are paying for insurance against one result — and the price of that insurance is compressed odds.
How Double Chance Odds Are Calculated
Bookmakers price double chance markets by combining the implied probabilities of the two outcomes covered. Consider a Premier League match where the bookmaker’s 1X2 prices are:
- Home win: 2.20 (implied probability: 45.5%)
- Draw: 3.60 (implied probability: 27.8%)
- Away win: 3.80 (implied probability: 26.3%)
Sum of implied probabilities: 99.6% (the bookmaker’s overround is small in this example for clarity)
The double chance prices are built from these underlying probabilities:
- 1X (Home or Draw): Implied probability = 45.5% + 27.8% = 73.3% → fair odds ≈ 1.36
- X2 (Draw or Away): Implied probability = 27.8% + 26.3% = 54.1% → fair odds ≈ 1.85
- 12 (Home or Away): Implied probability = 45.5% + 26.3% = 71.8% → fair odds ≈ 1.39
In practice, the bookmaker adds their margin on top, so the actual posted double chance prices will be slightly lower (less generous) than these theoretical figures. The prices above are what a perfectly fair market would offer; real double chance odds will typically run 5–10% below fair value after the bookmaker’s margin is applied.
Worked Examples
Example 1: 1X (Home or Draw)
Match: Arsenal vs Burnley 1X2 odds: Arsenal 1.40 / Draw 4.50 / Burnley 9.00 1X double chance odds: 1.16 Stake: £20
- Arsenal win → Win. Return: £20 × 1.16 = £23.20 (profit: £3.20)
- Draw → Win. Return: £20 × 1.16 = £23.20 (profit: £3.20)
- Burnley win → Lose. Loss: £20
Here the 1X double chance covers two highly probable outcomes — an Arsenal win or a draw — at the cost of very compressed odds. The £3.20 profit on a £20 stake represents a 16% return.
Is it worth it? At 1.16, the break-even win rate is 86.2%. Arsenal winning or drawing means you win; only a Burnley win loses. A heavy favourite market like this is the least attractive context for double chance betting — you are paying heavily for insurance against an already-unlikely result.
Example 2: X2 (Draw or Away)
Match: Bayern Munich vs Bochum (Bundesliga) 1X2 odds: Bayern 1.18 / Draw 7.50 / Bochum 17.00 X2 double chance odds: 2.40 (illustrative) Stake: £20
- Bayern win → Lose. Loss: £20
- Draw → Win. Return: £48.00 (profit: £28.00)
- Bochum win → Win. Return: £48.00 (profit: £28.00)
The X2 here is backing against the overwhelming favourite. The odds are meaningful (2.40) because the dominant team winning is by far the most probable single outcome. This is a contrarian double chance bet — used when you have reason to believe the favourite will be held or beaten.
Example 3: 12 (Home or Away — No Draw)
Match: Tottenham vs Chelsea 1X2 odds: Tottenham 2.60 / Draw 3.20 / Chelsea 2.90 12 double chance odds: 1.42 Stake: £20
- Tottenham win → Win. Return: £28.40 (profit: £8.40)
- Draw → Lose. Loss: £20
- Chelsea win → Win. Return: £28.40 (profit: £8.40)
The 12 combination is the most distinctive — it eliminates the draw, covering both team wins. It is most useful in evenly-matched fixtures where a draw is possible but you want to cover both winner scenarios. In football, where draws occur in roughly 25–27% of matches at the top level, the 12 bet loses roughly one in four times at baseline.
Double Chance vs. Related Markets
Double Chance vs. Match Winner
The standard match winner requires one specific outcome. Double chance covers two. The trade-off is always odds vs. coverage:
| Scenario | Match Winner odds | Double Chance odds | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (fav) to win or draw (1X) | Arsenal win: 1.40 | 1X: 1.14 | -0.26 |
| Liverpool away to win or draw (X2) | Liverpool win: 1.80 | X2: 1.28 | -0.52 |
| Either team to win 12 in 50/50 fixture | Home: 2.10 / Away: 2.10 | 12: 1.44 | — |
The closer the match winner odds are to evens, the more the double chance costs proportionally in compressed odds. The clearer the favourite, the less the double chance adds relative to simply backing the favourite.
Double Chance vs. Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet and the double chance 1X or X2 combinations may appear similar — both involve the draw — but they settle differently:
| Market | If team wins | If draw | If team loses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Winner | Win | Lose | Lose |
| Draw No Bet | Win | Void (stake returned) | Lose |
| Double Chance 1X | Win | Win | Lose |
The critical difference: Draw No Bet returns your stake on a draw; Double Chance 1X wins on a draw. Double chance 1X will therefore pay out a return on a draw; Draw No Bet simply returns your outlay. At equivalent coverage, double chance 1X will carry lower odds than Draw No Bet — because the draw outcome wins the bet rather than merely voiding it.
Practical implication: If you want meaningful odds while protecting against the draw, Draw No Bet often represents better value. If you specifically want the draw to be a winning rather than neutral outcome, double chance 1X is the appropriate market.
Double Chance vs. Asian Handicap 0
An Asian Handicap 0 on the favourite is closely related to Draw No Bet — it voids on a draw. Double chance 1X on the same favourite wins on a draw. The mechanics mirror those above. Check both markets when placing — the Asian Handicap section sometimes offers better value on the equivalent line, particularly on major fixtures with high liquidity.
When Double Chance Betting Offers Value
Double chance betting is not generically good or bad value — the value depends entirely on the specific fixture and how the market is priced. The situations where it is most analytically justified:
1. Evenly-Matched Fixtures (12 Combination)
When two teams are closely priced — say, 2.10 vs. 2.10 with a draw at 3.30 — the 12 combination gives you a 70%+ probability market at reasonable odds (~1.40–1.50). If you have conviction that the match will produce a winner (both teams need to win, a cup tie, late-season relegation or title stakes reducing the incentive to settle for a draw), the 12 double chance is a clean expression of that view.
2. Strong Away Teams in Hostile Environments (X2)
Away favourites or strong away sides often face structural draw risk — home support, unfamiliar pitch, tactical caution from the home side. An X2 covering an away win or draw protects against the draw scenario that is disproportionately likely for travelling sides in certain competitions and venues. Europa League away legs, league cup ties at lower-division grounds, and difficult early-season fixtures where teams are still finding form are natural X2 contexts.
3. Dominant Home Favourites in Cup Ties (1X)
Home sides in cup competitions — particularly in early rounds against lower-opposition — face a specific risk profile: they are likely to advance, but cup ties carry knockout jeopardy that can suppress attacking intent. A 1X double chance in a cup tie where the home side is a significant favourite but the stakes create caution covers the realistic outcomes at a modest reduction in odds.
4. Accumulators: Reducing Variance on Key Legs
Double chance selections can be used to reduce variance in accumulators where a single draw would otherwise lose the entire bet. In a five-team accumulator where one leg is a coin-flip fixture, replacing the match winner bet on that leg with a 12 double chance shortens the overall odds but meaningfully improves the probability of the accumulator landing. This is a strategic trade-off rather than a blanket recommendation — the optimal choice depends on your odds target and your assessment of draw probability in each leg.
When Double Chance Is Not Worth Using
Short-Priced Favourites (1X)
When a team is priced at 1.25 or shorter to win, the 1X double chance will typically be offered around 1.07–1.12. The draw insurance costs 13–18% of your potential return. If the heavy favourite has a 75–80% win probability and a 15% draw probability, the only outcome you are insured against is a ~5–10% probability away win. At 1.08, you need to win this bet 93% of the time to show long-term profit. The insurance cost far exceeds the risk it covers.
Better alternative: Back the favourite straight on the match winner, or use Draw No Bet if the draw risk feels genuinely significant.
When Draw Probability Is Very Low
Some fixtures structurally produce very few draws: high-scoring leagues, knockout rounds where replays are not permitted, matches with significant asymmetric motivation (one team fighting relegation, one already safe). When draw probability is genuinely low, insuring against it via double chance is expensive coverage of an unlikely event. The 12 combination in such a fixture may offer poor odds relative to simply backing the more probable winner.
In-Play Double Chance After a Goal
Once a goal is scored, the double chance market reprices significantly. An X2 double chance taken in-play when the away side are leading means your bet now essentially requires only that the away team don’t collapse — the draw is a winning result for you, the home team winning is the only losing scenario. The odds will reflect this: in-play double chance after a goal can be very short. In these cases the in-play value is typically better expressed through hedging, Draw No Bet, or simply holding the original position.
Double Chance in Accumulators: Mechanics
When double chance selections are included in an accumulator, each leg settles independently. The double chance leg wins if either of the two covered outcomes occurs; if the uncovered outcome happens, that leg loses and the entire accumulator is lost.
Example: Five-fold accumulator including a 12 double chance on a 50/50 fixture.
- Four standard match winner legs at 1.80 average
- One 12 double chance leg at 1.45
Win probability comparison:
- Four match winner legs at 55% each: 0.55⁴ = 9.15%
- Adding one standard match winner at 50%: × 0.50 = 4.57%
- Adding one 12 double chance at 71%: × 0.71 = 6.50%
Replacing the 50/50 match winner with the 12 double chance increases accumulator probability from 4.57% to 6.50% — a 42% improvement in win probability — at the cost of the fifth leg’s odds reducing from 2.10 to 1.45. The total accumulator odds reduce, but the likelihood of winning increases substantially. Whether this trade-off is worthwhile depends on your target return and your draw probability assessment for that specific fixture.
Double Chance Outside Football
Double chance markets are almost exclusively a football product. The three-outcome (win/draw/lose) structure of football is what creates the double chance concept — in two-outcome sports (tennis, basketball, most US sports), there is no draw to insure against and therefore no double chance market.
The only partial exceptions:
- Ice hockey: Some operators offer double chance on 60-minute result markets (before overtime/shootout), where a tie after regulation is a distinct outcome. The mechanics mirror football double chance exactly.
- Rugby union and rugby league: Draws are possible but rare. Some bookmakers offer double chance markets on major fixtures where a draw is a realistic possibility (tight derbies, cup finals).
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a double chance bet pay out if the match is abandoned?
Bookmakers generally void all bets if a match is abandoned before completion (90 minutes plus stoppage time). Check your specific operator’s rules, particularly for matches abandoned in the second half where some operators settle on the score at abandonment.
Can I use a double chance bet with a free bet?
Yes — free bets and bet credits can be used on double chance markets at most bookmakers. The same stake-not-returned mechanics apply: if the free bet wins, only the winnings are paid, not the free bet stake itself. At the compressed odds typical of double chance bets (1.10–1.50), free bets generate relatively low cash returns, so match winner markets with higher odds typically extract more value from free bet stakes.
Are double chance odds the same across all bookmakers?
No — double chance odds vary between operators, and comparing prices is worthwhile for meaningful stakes. Differences of 0.03–0.05 in decimal odds are common. On a £100 stake at 1.40 vs. 1.45, the difference is £5 — worth a 30-second price comparison.
Is 1X the same as backing the home team on Draw No Bet?
No — see the comparison table above. Draw No Bet on the home team returns your stake on a draw. Double chance 1X wins on a draw. The 1X double chance will carry lower odds than Draw No Bet on the same selection because the draw outcome is more valuable to you under 1X (it pays) than under DNB (it merely recoups).
Related reading on online-betting.org:
- → Draw No Bet Explained: How It Works and When to Use It (2026)
- → Asian Handicap Betting Explained: Full Guide to 0, 0.5, 1 and Split Lines (2026)
- → Half-Time/Full-Time Betting Explained: How HT/FT Works, Odds and Strategy (2026)