Underdog Betting Strategy: Underdog wins at home or draws
A tried and tested betting strategy is to place an underdog bet. This means that you bet money on a team or player that the bookmaker expects to lose the match. At first glance, this seems like a somewhat bizarre tactic. Most people who place a bet choose to bet on the favourite to win.
However, the profit you make on this bet is minimal due to the low odds. Professional gamblers prefer to bet on an underdog because if you win, you get paid out five or six times your bet. Of course, the chance of success is much smaller, but by doing good research in advance, it is certainly not impossible.
In this article, we will discuss the betting strategy of betting on a win or a draw by the home underdog. We will explain exactly what this bet entails and discuss the advantages and disadvantages. We will also tell you what to take into account during your preliminary research to significantly increase your chances of winning with this strategy.
What exactly does ‘betting on the underdog’ mean?
Under-dog betting means that you bet your money on the player or team that the bookmakers think has less chance of winning. This often results in high odds. The chances of winning are slim with this strategy, but if you do win, you will receive a decent payout.
Consider the following example
| Wedstrijd | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| RKC – PSV | 6.50 | 3.50 | 1.30 |
You can see that the bookmaker sees PSV as the big favourite. The vast majority of gamblers will always choose the expected winner. There is a good chance that you will win the bet when you bet on PSV. But the profit is correspondingly low. If you really want to win some money, you will have to bet a large amount and still risk a lot. With a bet of ₤10, you will receive ₤13 if you correctly predict the result. In other words, a paltry ₤3 profit, for which you take the risk of losing ₤10.
A minority of participants would rather bet on the underdog. Of course, there is a good chance that you will lose such a bet. But there are always surprises: every round of play there is a ‘small’ team that manages to beat the favourite. If RKC were to actually win, you would make a huge profit. With a bet of ₤10, you could receive as much as ₤65. By betting smaller amounts on the success of the underdog, you can still win a nice amount if you win.
The double chance: win or draw for the underdog
If you want to increase your chances of winning a bet, you can choose a double chance bet. With a double chance bet, you win if the underdog wins or if there is a draw.
| Dubbele kans weddenschap | X1 | X | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| RKC – PSV | 2.80 | 3.50 | 1.20 |
You can see that you still win ₤2.80 for every euro you bet when RKC wins or draws. These odds are a lot lower than when you only bet on a win, but the chance of winning is considerably higher. And you still make a hefty profit with a good prediction: for every ₤10 bet, you receive ₤28.
Why bet on an underdog?
Some players are mainly interested in high returns. They are not looking for safe bets that will leave you with a profit of a few euros at most. By choosing to take more risk, you ultimately have a chance of winning much more. They do take into account that they will lose more often.
But does it make sense to apply the underdog strategy? Such bets can certainly be interesting. Although you have less chance of winning, you can still make a huge profit. However, you will have little chance of success if you impulsively bet on the underdog because the odds are so favourable. This will mainly lead to losing bets. If you choose a home win or a draw for the underdog, you will really have to invest time in a good analysis. You can read how to do this later in this article.
Advantages of betting on the non-favourite playing at home
Every type of bet has its own advantages and disadvantages. This is also the case when betting on a win or a draw for the home-playing underdog. We have listed three interesting advantages for you.
A considerably higher profit if successful
The odds are much higher when you choose the club that appears to have the smallest chance of winning. You can often win six, seven or even eight times your stake. Even if you lose more bets than you win, you can still make a nice profit. You don’t necessarily have to bet a large amount to do so.
The chance of winning is often greater than the bookmaker indicates
Why does a bookmaker choose a certain odds ratio? Can he calculate exactly how big the chance is that one team will win? Partly yes, but not entirely. The bookmaker also takes the behaviour of the players into account. The vast majority of gamblers always choose the favourite. Media hype and public sentiment often exaggerate the favourite’s chances of winning. That is why these odds are always very low and there is little to be gained from them.
The underdog is often undervalued by the bookmaker. In short: the chance that an underdog will win (or draw) is actually greater than the odds indicated by the bookmakers. For example, in the 2023-2024 season, Ajax only won 7 of its 17 away games, while it was still usually labelled as the favourite by the bookmakers.
The underdog wins more often than expected
Apart from the fact that the bookmaker often underestimates the odds for the underdog, the chances of success for the dark horse are in reality often greater than expected. There are a number of factors that increase the chances of success for the home underdog. For example, the underdog often plays under less pressure. Since public opinion already assumes a defeat, there is usually little to lose. This nothing-to-lose mentality can often create a flow.
The home advantage should not be underestimated either. No club finds it appealing to have to play at the Vijverberg against De Graafschap, in Breda against NAC or at ADO Den Haag. The crowd really acts as a twelfth man here.
In addition, underestimation often plays a role for the favourite. Surprises occur almost every round. It is up to you as a player to predict which match will provide this surprise.
Disadvantages of betting on success for the underdog
Of course, you also have to take into account some specific disadvantages when betting on the home success of the smaller club. Take this into account when you place a bet.
Lower chance of success
Of course, there is a greater chance that you will lose your bets. All in all, the favourite will win more often than the underdog. So you will have to take into account that your chance of success is lower. Some players therefore choose to bet on four or five matches. If the underdog is successful in one of these five matches, that more than makes up for the loss of the four other bets.
A higher time investment
If you want to be successful with this strategy, you will have to invest more time in preliminary research. A thorough analysis of a few days is certainly necessary to have a greater chance of success. This way you can make a better estimate and have a greater chance of success.
Strategy for betting on the home underdog to win by a points margin
If you randomly bet on the underdog without doing any research, you will mostly lose a lot of money. It can certainly be interesting to bet on the home underdog, but you will have to put some energy into it.
You will really have to find out which match has the potential for a surprise. Delve into the history of the clubs, look at their mutual results and follow the latest developments closely. This will significantly increase your chances of success. When betting on the underdog, you should at least consider the following points.
Injuries and suspensions
Look at recent developments in both teams. Are any key players missing from the favourite team due to injury or suspension? Has the favourite team been in form in recent weeks? Is there unrest at the club? On our site you will find an overview of injured and suspended players in the Eredivisie and many other football leagues.
Form of the underdog
An underdog that has put in a good run of results in its recent home games is often underestimated by the bookmakers.
European matches
Does the favourite team have European matches scheduled before and/or after this game? This often leads to a loss of points in the league duel.
Head to head records
All the big clubs have a team they fear, against which they regularly lose points. For example, Ajax regularly loses to FC Utrecht and PSV has almost always struggled against Heerenveen in the last ten years. Borussia Mönchengladbach has spent the last ten years mainly in the lower reaches of the Bundesliga, but in the last ten home games they have only lost three times to the superpower Bayern Munich.
So dive into the mutual results to see if the underdog regularly causes a surprise against the favourite team in this match.
Changing odds
Keep a close eye on the odds for a few days. When the bookmakers increase the underdog’s chances of winning, it often indicates that professional gamblers recognise the chance of a surprise and have done their research.
Important tips when betting on the home underdog
Now that you know what to look out for when betting on the home underdog to win or draw, we have a few more recommendations.
Spread your risk
We briefly mentioned that professional gamblers spread their risk. Instead of betting all your money on one underdog, you can also choose to bet a smaller amount on four or five different matches. This way you spread the risk. The profit from one winning bet more than makes up for the losses from the other bets.
Another way to spread your risk is to opt for the ‘double chance’ bet. With this bet, you win not only if the home team wins, but also if there is a draw. Of course, the profit is much lower than if you only bet on the underdog winning, but you increase your chance of winning considerably.
You can take even less of a risk by, for example, only choosing to bet on the underdog to score the first goal of the match. Even if the match is lost afterwards, you will have won the bet. Here too, you will need to do your research in advance.
Be patient when placing a bet
When do you bet on the underdog? The longer you wait, the better your assessment will be. Has the underdog made a new purchase, or has a player dropped out of training? Then you can take this into account in your considerations.
The disadvantage is that the bookmakers will also adjust their odds. Some bookmakers will do this faster than others. So try to beat the bookmaker to the punch. As you can see, it is also very important to compare the odds of the various bookmakers. This will help you to strike at the right moment.
One last warning before you place this bet
Keep in mind that you will mostly lose. It is a matter of waiting for that one big hit. But beware! There is a risk that you will keep placing bets until you finally hit the jackpot. This can cause your losses to mount up enormously. Set a budget in advance and stick to it. By applying bankroll management, you can give yourself enough time to wait for the winning bet(s) on the underdog.