Winter Derby 2018 Horse Racing Preview and Betting Tip

The Winter Derby was first run in 1998 and continues to be run over 10-furlongs on the polytrack all-weather surface at Lingfield. Designed to give all-weather horses a big target to aim at, the race was given Listed status after just one year, before being upgraded to its current Group 3 status in 2006. The race has never been won more than once, with the highest-rated winner in recent years being Tranquil Tiger who was trained by the late Sir Henry Cecil.

Winter Derby 10-Year-Trends

  • Four 4-year-olds, four 6-year-olds, one 5-year-old, and one 8-year-old have been successful
  • Winners were rated between 103 and 112
  • 4 of the last 10 favourites have won
  • SP’s have ranged from 11/8 to 14/1
  • Adam Kirby has ridden 2 of the last 3 winners
  • Andrea Atzeni has ridden 2 of the last 5 winners

Winter Derby 2018 Main Contenders

Clear Skies

5-year-old mare trained by Aidan O’Brien in Ireland who was only rated 75 in November. However, she has since won 5 handicaps, the latest by 5½ lengths off a mark of 96. Hard to know whether she’s got what it takes to take on group-class colts and geldings but impossible to rule her out given her current progression.

Autocratic

5-year-old trained by Sir Michael Stoute who was only rated 78 in June 2016. However, typically of many Stoute trained horses, he is now rated 112 after winning a maiden, a class 2 handicap, and a group 3. Poor when last seen 6 months ago but could take to polytrack after running second on his only other start on the all-weather at Chelmsford.

Utmost

4-year-old trained by John Gosden who didn’t look anything out of the ordinary on his first few starts. Given an inspired ride from the front by Rab Havlin last time to beat the useful Victory Bond but unlikely to be given such an easy time upfront again.

Convey

6-year-old trained by Sir Michael Stoute who won last year’s renewal of this race before going on to win for a second time over course and distance on All-weather Finals Day. Won last year’s race having not raced since the previous October but has a longer absence to overcome having not raced since May this time around. No horse has won the race twice.

Khalidi

4-year-old who is having his first run for Clive Cox having previously being trained by John Gosden. Officially the highest-rated horse in the field on a mark of 114 but, though he has been placed several times at Group-level, he has yet to win a group-race. Not proven on the all-weather but run-style suggests it should suit.

Winter Derby 2018 Horse Racing Preview and Betting Tip

Only one 5-year-old has won in the last 16-years and, though that was last year, it could be worth avoiding the 5-year-olds Clear Skies and Autocratic. The stats also suggest it may also be wise to bet against Convey as no horse has run the twice. Meanwhile, Utmost has proven himself over course and distance but, as he looks sure to get pestered for the lead this time. Therefore, it could be worth chancing that Khalidi takes an instant liking to Lingfield, just as Convey did last year, as his rating suggests he’s the best horse in the race. Winter Derby 2018 Tip: Khalidi