New York Knicks – Charlotte Hornets Odds & Prediction
- New York Knicks @ Charlotte Hornets
- NBA regular season
- Date: 12/11/2021
- Start time: 07:00 PM ET
- Spectrum Center, Charlotte
Strong road team facing squad searching for its identity
The New York Knicks are looking to improve to 6-1 on the road on Friday night when they are facing the Charlotte Hornets.
New York has a 7-5 record with a +3.0 adjusted point differential, while the Hornets sit at 6-7 with a -1.4 adjusted point differential. The injury report is pretty positive for both squads with only backup center Nerlens Noel being questionable for the Knicks, while the Hornets will be without P.J. Washington, who is usually their center in their small-ball lineups.
The Hornets have major issues in the early going with on both ends of the floor. Last season this was a team that was mostly average both offensively and defensively, but this year we’ve seen the defensive side of things take a huge drop. At this point in the season, the Hornets are 27th in points per possession allowed and 27th in effective field goal percentage allowed.
Charlotte is attacking the rim at a top-three rate in the league, but their efficiency on these shots is just 27th in the league. This doesn’t make us put too much faith in this squad heading into the matchup. Read on to find out why!
New York’s new-look offense & defense in the paint won’t disappoint
The Knicks have started this season hot on the offensive end. Despite facing a relatively difficult schedule of opposing defenses, the team is 4th in points scored per possession and 7th in effective field goal percentage. New York is also turning the ball over the fifth least in the league and the Knicks are top 10 in free throw rate as well.
The on-court handicap really favors the road team in this one. Over 70% of New York’s offense comes from either in the paint or from three-point range. The Knicks have the 4th highest accuracy in the league from 3pt range and 7th highest around the rim. The Hornets grade 17th and 28th defensively in these spots. We just don’t see how this Charlotte team can slow down an offense that was built to beat them.
On the defensive end, the Knicks allow the second-lowest field goal percentage in the paint, which spells trouble for the Hornets, who are forcing attacking the rim way too much, especially as they are without P.J. Washington.
Pick: New York Knicks -1.5 -110 (1.91x) Bet365
We are taking New York in this one. You only have to lay a few points to get on board, but betting the Knicks on the money line is also a strong bet. We have a strong lean towards the under here on the total, which could mean that this could turn into a low-scoring game where every point matters.
Besides the already mentioned on-court advantages we have to mention that coach Tom Thibodeau did pull his entire starting lineup in the second half of their recent game due to the lack of effort. We would expect a strong performance from the Knicks starters after such an embarrassing loss that saw their stars watching the end of the game from the bench.
This is also the return of Kemba Walker (New York’s point guard) to Charlotte, where he spent almost 10 years in his career, it is not rare to see teammates stepping up to support one of theirs during a special game like this.
Note: Our model sees New York winning this game about 56.5% of the time, which tells us that the Knicks are a good bet on the money line at -125 (1.80x) or better, or against the sprea
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