Miami Heat – Denver Nuggets Prediction & Odds

Miami Heat – Denver Nuggets Prediction & Odds

Basketball 2

The best team in the Eastern Conference?

Backing a road favorite in Denver is not something that many bettors are lining up to do, but it might be the right thing Monday evening when the Heat are traveling to Colorado to face the shorthanded Denver Nuggets.

After spending a fortune on upgrades during the summer, the Heat are looking like the best team in the East based on their first nine games. Veteran point guard Kyle Lowry is giving a whole new perspective to this team that was lacking leadership in the past season. Lowry is averaging 11.3 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds in the early going, and he is actively making his teammates play a better brand of basketball.

We’ve also seen Jimmy Butler turn back the clock averaging 24.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists, and young center Bam Adebayo (19.4 points, 12 rebounds, 2.4 assists) has also found another gear this year. The story of the season has still been Tyler Herro though, who is playing lights out. Herro is giving the Heat much-needed bench scoring and is averaging 21.3 points on 42.6% three-point shooting.

From one two five, this team is loaded with talent and we can surely say that they will be a tough out in the postseason. Nine games in, the Heat have a +11 average adjusted point differential to go with their 7-2 record. Miami is 4th in the league in both offensive and defensive rating. The Heat have been outperforming their closing spreads by 8.3 points on average which is the largest margin in the entire NBA. So far, so good!

Is Denver really a contender?

In their current form, we are not sure that the Denver Nuggets belong amongst the top teams in the Western Conference. Denver is sitting with a 5-4 record and a +1.6 points differential, but the team has serious issues in the early going, mainly the 103.7 offensive rating, which is the 6th-worst in the entire league.

We’ve known already that this will be a tough season for the Nuggets as their second-best player Jamal Murray will likely miss the entire regular season after an ACL tear. Sadly, the Nuggets failed to improve upon their guard rotation in the offseason, making this one of the weakest backcourts in the entire league. Simply put, Monte Morris and Will Barton shouldn’t cut it against the Kyle Lowries of the World.

It is important to note, that Denver’s third-best player, wingman Michael Porter Jr. will miss this game due to back spasms. Porter missed serious time due to a back operation and his lower back acting up doesn’t spell good things for this squad going forward. This injury could also be the reason why Porter has been struggling in the early going.

Pick: Miami Heat -2 -110 (1.91x) Bet365

We are laying the two points with the Miami Heat. Our model makes this spread above three points with Denver missing two of their three best players in this game. Nikola Jokic is one of the most amazing big men in today’s NBA, but the supporting cast around him doesn’t have enough talent for them to match Miami.

The Heat are playing solid basketball on both sides of the ball and we would need to see a huge game from Denver guard Will Barton or ex-Magic forward Aaron Gordon for the Nuggets to successfully hang around in this one. This could pretty quickly turn into a blowout by the road tea

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