Detroit Pistons – Houston Rockets Prediction & Odds
A clash between bottom dwellers providing value
We have a full, 13-game NBA card on our hands this Wednesday and you are likely seeing better quality matchups than this clash between the 1-9 Rockets and the 1-8 Pistons. Still, we are aiming to find value here and one of these two teams is not as bad as the other one. Let’s find out which one!
- Detroit Pistons @ Houston Rockets
- NBA regular season
- Date: 10/11/2021
- Start time: 07:30 PM ET
- Toyota Center, Houston
Detroit could be the worst team in the league
The Pistons aren’t looking too hot in the early going. Besides their 1-8 record, Detroit did only cover three games against the spread and hold a -14.4 adjusted point differential. Detroit is grading dead last offensively in the league, only scoring just 97 points per 100 possessions. The Pistons are the only team besides Oklahoma City that is averaging less than 100 points per 100 possessions at this point.
Bookmakers have been low on Detroit coming into the season, but the Pistons did manage to underperform these low expectations. At this point, Detroit is underperforming their closing spreads by 5.6 points per game on average.
Jerami Grant & Co. are also dead last in rebounding with just 42 averaged per game and 30th in field goal percentage at 39%. Detroit also allows the highest field goal percentage to opposing teams with a 49% average.
The struggles mainly come due to Killian Hayes being the worst starting point guard in the league and 2021’s number one draft pick, Cade Cunningham underperforming the expectations big time.
Houston might not be that bad in the end
The Rockets aren’t super strong, but this is still a roster that has more than capable offensive weapons. Jalen Green is turning out to be a really good draft pick for the home team. Green is averaging almost 14 points and 3 rebounds and his shooting should get better down the line. Green is helped out by SF Jae’Sean Tate, who was named All-Rookie first team for the 2020-21 season. Besides this duo of youngsters, we’ve seen Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood also adding a lot of buckets on the offensive end. Their defense might be lacking, but there are much worse offensive units than this starting lineup.
Besides the 30th turnover rate in the league, there are no huge issues with this roster. Houston has also been underperforming its underlying numbers, which should work in our favor Wednesday night. The Rockets only have 1 win but based on their point differential their Pythagorean record is between 2-8 and 3-7 rather than 1-9. Houston only lost to the Nuggets by 1 point, to the Lakers by 2 points as this young squad tends to keep up with the better teams of the league.
The Rockets are also outperforming their closing spreads by 1.3 points on average and they should be a solid bet at home against what is likely the weakest team in the league.
Detroit Pistons – Houston Rockets Odds
Pick: Houston Rockets money line -125 (1.80x) Bet365
We are going with the Houston Rockets on Wednesday. Our model thinks that the home team will win close to 60% of the time, making this a very strong wager in our book. We know that the Rockets aren’t the strongest team in the league, but their adjusted point differential is more than five points better than Detroit’s, plus they have home-court working in their favor as well.
Note: We would play Houston at -130 (1.77x) or better. Betting on the spread also works at Houston -2 –110 (1.91x) or better, but our model prefers the money line as it is expecting a low-scoring game.
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