Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints Betting Tips & Odds
- Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints
- NFL regular season Week 12
- Date: 11/25/2021
- Start time: 08:20 PM ET
- Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Promising Thanksgiving nightcap between two top squads in need of a win
Both the 6-4 Buffalo Bills and the 5-5 New Orleans Saints did see brighter days heading into Week 12 of the 2021-22 NFL season.
The Bills were not too long ago owners of a 4-game win streak that catapulted QB Josh Allen to the top of the league’s MVP rankings. Since then, the team fell short to the 2-8 Jacksonville Jaguars and lost by 27 points to the Indianapolis Colts as 7-point favorites.
The New Orleans Saints, losers of 3 straight aren’t doing much better either. Sean Payton’s boys eked out a win over the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8, but since then haven’t been competitive. New Orleans lost games to Atlanta, Tennessee and most recently Philadelphia as the team’s current QB Trevor Siemian seems unable to handle his duties on an NFL level. Which of these two teams do we expect to show up in Week 12? Let’s find out!
Bills excelling against an easy schedule
While the Buffalo Bills faced the easiest schedule in the entire league so far based on ESPN’s strength of schedule metric the team has been mostly handling their weak opponents with ease. This also shows in Buffalo’s overall numbers, which is pretty spectacular compared to what we’ve seen from them in 2020.
Buffalo’s improvements mostly come on the defensive end. The Bills are only allowing a 5.7-yard average depth of target (down from 6.9 yards last year) and 9.8 yards per reception (down from 10.7 yards in 2020). The team is ranked first in defensive DVOA by a huge margin resulting in Buffalo taking the #1 overall spot in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings despite their 14th ranked offense.
Still, the offensive numbers of the Bills are nothing to scoff at either. QB Josh Allen averages a 66% pass completion rate, a 7.3-yard average depth of target, and a 37% first-down rate. Buffalo’s receivers are reaching first downs at a 57% clip averaging 11.1 yards per reception. Josh Allen is graded as the 11th best QB in the league on PFF’s QB ladder, but being a bit better than average on the offensive end should be enough against a team that has trouble scoring.
Injuries & lack of offense hurting New Orleans
This Saints team just cannot get healthy. New Orleans’s starting QB, Jameis Winston is out for the season. The team will also be without #1 and #2 running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram this Thursday. All these injuries pile on the top of the team missing multiple cornerbacks and tackles.
In four outings, QB Trevor Siemian has only reached a 95 QB rating just once. Siemian is coming off his worst game of the season where he only had 214 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions against a very beatable Eagles defense. Much of Siemian’s production also came in garbage time. We don’t have a lot of faith in him starting against the #1 DVOA defense.
We also have to note that the Saints defense is allowing a 7.7-yard average depth of target (a full yard worse than what the team allowed in 2020) and 12.2 yards on after every successful reception. Buffalo could have a field day on Thursday!
Pick: Buffalo -4.5 -110 (1.91x) Bet365
We are laying the points with Buffalo here. This Saints team is decimated by injuries on both sides of the football and while Josh Allen & Co. did lay an egg a few times in the last couple of weeks, they are still a solid squad on both ends. We don’t think that Trevor Siemian is capable of replicating Josh Allen’s passing or rushing attacks, while the road team should be able to score at will against a Saints secondary that is mediocre at best.
Note: Our model makes this spread 5.5-points and we would bet the Bills at -5 -110 (1.91x) or better.
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