Brazil vs Paraguay Betting Tip, Prediction & Odds
The quarter-finals of the 2019 Copa America will start with the clash between massive favourites, Brazil, and Paraguay who had a lot of luck to advance to the knockout stage.
Brazil vs Paraguay
- Copa America
- Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Brazil
- Friday 28 June
- 01:30 UK Time
Brazil vs Paraguay Game Preview
Brazil finished the group stage in style with a big 5-0 victory over Peru, and that win could be even more significant if Gabriel Jesus didn’t miss from the penalty in injury time. Seleção deservedly topped their group ahead of Venezuela and Peru and are still the biggest favourites to win this Copa America. On the other hand, Paraguay had enormous luck to even qualify for the quarter-finals as only a draw between Ecuador and Japan worked in their favour. That game ended 1-1, and Los Guaraníes got an opportunity to face the hosts in this one, but it would be a miracle if they manage to progress to the semis.
Brazil Team News and Latest Form
Top-ranked side Brazil (FIFA rank: #3) scored a tournament-high of eight group stage goals to practically sail here. Even more impressively, the hosts are also yet to concede a single goal in this year’s Copa America and are now unbeaten in 13 matches overall (W11, D2) conceding just twice in that sequence.
Ten of Brazil’s 11 victories in that sequence have come without reply from the opposition, and it has been almost two years since they last gave up a goal to a fellow CONMEBOL side (Colombia). Overall, Brazil have not conceded a goal in their last 754 minutes of play vs CONMEBOL sides.
Phillipe Coutinho has been involved in three of his nation’s eight goals at Copa America 2019 (two goals, one assist). He notably scored a second-half brace on an opening day. Four of Brazil’s last five wins have seen them score precisely three times in one half.
Paraguay Team News and Latest Form
The odds are firmly against the visiting side then, especially with Paraguay winning just one of their last 11 matches (W1, D4, L6) doing so against lowly Guatemala (FIFA rank: #145). Moreover, the visitors have lost six of their last seven games against higher-ranked nations since (D1, L6), if excluding any extra time.
Intriguingly though, Paraguay have eliminated Brazil on penalties at this stage in two of the last three Copa America campaigns. In relation to this, four of Paraguay’s last five competitive H2Hs against Brazil have been level after 90 minutes.
Newcastle star Miguel Almiron has assisted two of Paraguay’s three Copa America goals in this campaign, although he has not found the net himself since last November. Both teams have scored in six of Paraguay’s last nine matches across all competitions.
Brazil vs Paraguay Head to Head
These rivals have met 47 times since 1921 and Brazil is a better side in all-time H2H duels with 23 victories; Paraguay have 12 while 12 matches ended without a winner. In the previous meeting at Copa America, Los Guaraníes were a better side after defeating Brazil on penalties in the quarter-finals in 2015. Brazil coach Tite won his only prior encounter vs Paraguay 3-0, with his side scoring in both halves.
Brazil vs Paraguay Betting Tip
Brazil are massive favourites at 2/11 odds, and we’re not betting on the odds low as these, so backing the hosts to win is not an option. Backing Seleção on Asian Handicap is another story, though, and considering how they fared in their latest group game and Paraguay’s weak display against Colombia, Brazil could easily score at least two or three goals in this one. We’re backing Brazil to cover the -2 spread at 23/25 with bet365, and in case they win by a two-goal margin, you’ll get your stake back.
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