Yanbian Fude travel to China’s capital city on Sunday to meet the mighty Beijing Guoan at Chairman Mao’s famous Workers’ Stadium. Seventh place Guoan have the home advantage and a fairly impressive home record. The Tigers are still bottom of the table and come in as the away underdogs, desperate to scrape the three points that could lift them above Tianjin. It’s been two wins out of three for Beijing Guoan in previous meetings. The Yanbian 1-0 victory is a bit too long ago to be confident of an away upset on Sunday.
13 May Yanbian Fude 1 – 2 Beijing Guoan
21 Sep ‘16 Beijing Guoan 3 – 0 Yanbian Fude
02 Apr ‘16 Yanbian Fude 1 – 0 Beijing Guoan
On paper it should be a total panning and an easy victory for Guoan, but Chinese football is typically full of surprises.
Football League Two – Workers Stadium, Beijing 10th September – 12:35 UK Time
Best Odd of: 1/8 at Ladbrokes
Best Odd of: 7 at Ladbrokes
Best Odd of: 25 at Ladbrokes
The strong favourites currently sit at 7th in the table. A win on Sunday could take them into 4th or even 3rd place on goal difference, so they’ll be aggressively seeking out those 3 points. Under former Bayer Leverkusen manager Roger Schmidt, Guoan haven’t lost a game in their last 4, winning twice and drawing twice with an impressive tally of 10 goals. Spanish top-scorer Soriano will no doubt start for the Imperial Guards alongside impressive Chinese striker Zhang Chiming.
28 Jul Henan Jianye 0 – 2 Beijing Guoan
05 Aug Beijing Guoan 2 – 2 Shandong Luneng
10 Aug Tianjin Quanjia 2 – 2 Beijing Guoan
13 Aug Beijing Guoan 4 – 0 Liaoning
19 Aug Hebei CFC 2 – 0 Beijing Guoan
Struggling Yanbian, on the other hand, are having a total stinker of a season — 23 games and a pitiful 3 wins says it all really. They’ve lost 3 of their last 5, conceding a whopping 11 goals in the process. Only Gambian striker Bubacarr Twawally has made any significant impact, scoring the majority of goals for the club. He may be worth watching, but put your money on the Tigers at your peril.
29 Jul Yanbian Fude 0 – 2 Tianjin Quanjia
5 Aug Hebei CFC 3 – 0 Yanbian Fude
9 Aug Yanbian Fude 3 – 1 Tianjin Teda
13 Aug Changchun Yatai 1 – 1 Yanbian Fude
19 Aug Yanbian Fude 0 – 4 Jiangsu S.
Yanbian have won just one away game out of 11; Guoan have lost just one of their 11 home games this season. Given Yanbian Fude’s away record, betting on the underdog at 25/1 (26.0) really doesn’t seem like a smart bet here. At 1/8 (1.13), backing the home side is also a waste of time.
The goals markets should offer more value for this one. Beijing Guoan have scored almost twice as many goals as Yanbian this season. They have a home average of 1.73 goals per game and there’ve been over 2.5 goals in 45% of their home games, 82% over 1.5 goals. In each of their last 4 games they’ve scored at least twice.
Perhaps wait a little while into the first half (10-20 mins) and then bet ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ in-play, if the odds go higher than 1/1 (2.0) and there are plenty of shots and corners in the early stages of the game. If it’s quiet early on and Fude park the bus in defence, consider betting the first half draw as long as the odds stay over 2/1 (3.0). A match odds win or lay-the-draw bet doesn’t seem like a good idea for this particular game. A significant number of Beijing Guoan’s games have ended 2-0, 2-1 or 2-2 this season — particularly their most recent — so consider a correct score bet if you’re looking for higher odds.