All of the hype ahead of this week’s Pro-Am fest that is the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in Scotland has been over the appearance of Rory McIlroy. The former World Number One has had a tough old season because of injury mostly, and this will be his final stop on the calendar year before taking an extended break to go and prepare himself for next year.
What has added a bit of spice to his appearance in Scotland is that he rediscovered some of his top form at the British Masters last week at Close House where he took a second place finish. He is a 5/1 shot at Ladbrokes to win the Pro-Am this week but that is a price that is well worth skipping over because he will get a tough opener at Carnoustie.
The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is contested over three courses, St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns and of the three of them, Carnoustie is the toughest and tightest of them all, so that’s the toughest place to start. That’s where McIlroy is though and the weather isn’t supposed to be all that great either, adding even more confusion into the mix of things. While he did return to form last week, it was a fair weather course and conditions that he thrived on and he may not be as fortunate this time around.
So while McIlroy has a second place finish in three of his last four starts at the tournament, this time around he has to be a ‘no’ in betting options at that 6/1 price, which puts him as the only pro in the field to trading under 20/1.
The Main Contenders
So wipe out McIlroy and that leaves a great look at Shane Lowry as one of those 18/1 options. In his last four outings at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, he has carded a top twenty finish, the best of those coming in a third-place finish in 2013. So he is pretty steady around the event and is striking the ball very well at the moment. Just adding to the appeal of Lowry is the fact that he went under 70 in each of the rounds at Close House in the British Masters last week for a seventh place finish.
Thorbjorn Olesen is a great 28/1 shot having made the cut in each of his last nine tournaments. That’s something that you look for and he has a bit of a track record at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship as well with a win in 2015 and a second place in 2012 his best finish at the tournament. So you put that together with his current form and each way value screams out on him.
Tommy Fleetwood has brilliant tournament history with a top fifteen finish in each of his last five runs at the tournament. The best of those was a second place finish in 2014. Fleetwood is at the 20/1 mark while Chris Wood (25/1) is another one you can look at for great form with three top ten finishes on the bounce at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and a top fifteen in each of his last four starts. There’s much better value than backing a largely out of form McIlroy to shine in what could be tough conditions.