Through his first 12 years in the league, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has established himself as arguably one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history. He has set numerous franchise and NFL records along the way that only speak to special ability that he has on the field.
Rodgers is coming off the heels one of his most productive seasons where he threw for 4,428 passing yards on 65.7 percent completion rate with a league-best 40 touchdowns with seven interceptions, and 104.2 passer rating. He finished fourth in both passing yards and passer rating.
This included posting a league-best seven games with three or more touchdown passes and no interceptions and tossing for 300 or more passing yards six times, and more than 250 passing yards on 10 occasions. He also posted a passer rating above 100 on nine different times in the 2016 campaign.
It had also marked his second single season where he has thrown 40-plus touchdown pass with seven or fewer interceptions, which he is the only player to put up those numbers in league history.
With that in mind, Ladbrokes has an NFL futures bet for the 2017-18 season concerning Rodgers with the over/under line at 4450.5 passing yards for the entire 16-game regular season. The over is at 10/11 odds while the under is at 4/5 odds for this particular bet.
This is quite an intriguing bet given that this yardage total is at quite a large total of passing yards for any quarterback to achieve let alone the two-time NFL MVP to achieve. This total would have been just 22 yards more than what he threw for this past season.
That said, the 33-year-old has proven that he can rack up the yardage with the best of them as he broken the 4,000 passing yard plateau six times in his illustrious career while topping more 4,400 yards on three occasions. This current betting wager would be the second-highest total in his career with his best mark coming in his 2011 NFL campaign where he threw for 4,643 yards on 68.3 percent completion rate with a career-high 45 touchdowns to six interceptions. These were each NFL records at the moment he achieved them all.
Keep in mind, this was a campaign where he threw for north of 300 passing yards eight times including a 400-yard performance, and more than 250 yards in 14 games that season. This included him throwing more than 25 passes in each contest while making at least 30 pass attempts 30 times on 12 occasions.
If Rodgers is hoping to get anywhere near what he threw last season and his 2011 MVP campaign, it would require him to throw the ball well above 500 times next season while hovering more toward 30 pass attempts per game. He has the track record that speaks for itself as he is only the player to record a 100-plus passer rating in six consecutive seasons.
This will hinges on various factors, but none more than his own health and the health of his receiver group. This impacted him greatly in the 2015 season that saw him fall short of the 4,000 passing yard plateau with 3,821 yards.
Much of this may have been affected by the absence of Pro Bowl wideout Jordy Nelson along with injuries other major contributors such as DaVante Adams and lack of true depth at the wide receiver position beyond those two and Randall Cobb. If he is able to have a healthy core group of receiving options that now includes veteran tight end Martellus Bennett, it could see him break that set betting mark.
Verdict: Give It A Go!
Rodgers has proven that he is more than capable of reaching that mark as he has shown throughout his career. There is no question that the ability is there to accomplish that feat. That said, much of this will be dependent on the play of his receiving core and offensive line, who have both proven in the past can be quite dependable and productive. Ultimately, this may be a risky bet given the amount of yardage expected throwing a couple hundred toward Rodgers reaching this amount could pay some dividends to pocketing a solid return.